Political analyst Wahome Thuku has predicted a possible UDA defeat in the upcoming Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election.

Howevee, he argued that the size of the party’s loss will be more significant than the outcome itself.

Using Facebook on Thursday, July 9, 2026, Thuku said the by-election would provide an early indication of political realignments in the Mt Kenya region ahead of the 2027 General Election.

“IF the UDA candidate gets HALF of the votes that the DCP candidate will get in Ol Kalou, that will be a very bad signal for the opposition,” Thuku wrote.

He argued that UDA would still find reason to celebrate if it secures a substantial share of the vote despite losing the seat.

“It will actually be more celebrated by UDA than the DCP’s victory,” he said.

Reading the numbers

Thuku likened the expected outcome to comparing examination results, saying the context behind the figures would matter more than who wins.

“More like celebrating a child who gets a C+ in a village school than one who gets a B+ at Kenya High School,” he wrote.

According to the analyst, the key issue will be whether President William Ruto’s party retains a sizeable voting bloc in a region where political support has recently shifted.

Mt Kenya test

Thuku said a strong UDA showing, even in defeat, would send a message that President Ruto still enjoys notable support in Mt Kenya.

“Just the idea that a third of Mt Kenya voters can actually vote for William Ruto is not good news,” he stated.

The Ol Kalou by-election has emerged as one of the country’s most closely watched political contests, with UDA seeking to retain influence in the region while the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) hopes to strengthen its foothold.

Senior leaders from both camps have intensified campaigns in the constituency, with the by-election widely viewed as an early political test ahead of the 2027 General Election.

Thuku maintained that beyond who wins the seat, the final vote margin will shape the political narrative for both UDA and the opposition in the months ahead.