UDA’s Leonard Muriuki leads in Mbeere North parliamentary race – Survey
By Luke Oluoch, October 22, 2025A local survey has put the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate in the Mbeere North by-election, Leonard Muthende Muriuki, as the front-runner.
According to the poll conducted over the past month and released on Wednesday, October 22, 2025, Muriuki garnered 40 per cent support, with just over 7 per cent support ahead of the Democratic Party (DP) candidate, Newton Karish, who polled 33.1 per cent.
Duncan Mbui of Chama Cha Kazi (CCK) came a distant third with a rating of 5.1 per cent.
The pollster noted that the parliamentary race remains wide open, with a significant 21.5 per cent of voters still undecided.
During the polling duration, Muriuki witnessed an upward trajectory, climbing from 33.3 per cent to 40.1 per cent.
Ceding grounds
The ascent marked a clear 6.8-point gain in just four weeks.
In contrast, Newton Karish, once the frontrunner with 40.1 per cent in September, saw his support stagnate, dipping marginally to 33.0 per cent.
The pollster revealed that Duncan Mbui had the most devastating statistic, with his campaigns suffering a major blow, collapsing from 20.0% to 5.1%.
Mbui’s plummeting statistics have been attributed to the shift to internal realignments that exposed the limits of his new platform’s reach.
Meanwhile, Muriuki’s rise has been hinged on a strong grassroots trust, consistency, and visible community engagement, placing him in pole position as Mbeere North heads toward the by-election.
Magarini predictions
The pollster’s ranking comes weeks after it carried out a similar poll for the Magarini by-election contest, where Harrison Kombe of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) was ranked as the most preferred candidate.
In the poll revealed on October 9, 2025, the firm placed Kombe firmly in control of Magarini’s political race with a 54.5% voter preference.
Former UDA-allied politician, now the Democracy For Citizens Party (DCP) candidate, Stanley Karisa, trailed in at second with 25.6%.
The Mbeere North poll comes just days after former Public Service CS Justin Muturi solicited support for the opposition candidate in the region.
He described Karish’s bid as more than just another political contest, framing it as a people-driven movement against corruption, empty promises, and self-serving leadership.
“This is not just another candidacy; it’s a movement. The people of Mbeere North are done with brokers and briefcase leaders. They want action, integrity, and truth in leadership, and Karish embodies exactly that,” Muturi added.
The race has been touted to provide an early overview of support between the United Opposition brigade and the government-allied side ahead of the major political showdown in the 2027 elections.