President William Ruto will convene a joint Parliamentary Group meeting this morning, which insiders say will either make or break his 2027 re-election plan and strategy.

Buoyed by the support of his political nemesis turned buddy, Orange party leader Raila Odinga, President Ruto is burning the midnight oil in cobbling a team that will help marshal not only votes for him but also pass his legislative agenda in Parliament.

However, there are a number of National Assembly and Senate members from both his United Democratic Alliance (UDA) camp and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) faction that are not reading from his script and have vowed to give the PG a wide berth.

The group led by Nairobi Senator and ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna and which brings together Babu Owino (Embakasi East), Caleb Amisi (Saboti), Gathoni Wamuchomba (Githunguri), Wamboka Wanami (Bumula)  and Clive Gisairo (Kitutu Masaba), has been categorical that President Ruto does not deserve a second term in office, citing Gen Z’s killings, wanton abductions, corruption and governance issues affecting the nation.

Deep State

“Those who lecture us about rigging elections because they are the deep state are forgetting that we were there too. Kenyans are not like Ugandans. They will reject Kasongo by 6 AM,” said Sifuna while attending the Annual Law Society of Kenya meeting in Diani.

President Ruto, while speaking in Migori last week, disclosed that the meeting would focus on discussing the Broad-Based partnership between his UDA camp and Raila’s ODM faction.

“We (ODM and Kenya Kwanza) agreed to work together to create a country that is for every Kenyan and come up with policies that bring in more income to our nation,” said Ruto.

He went on: “We have agreed that we are going to have a broad-based government meeting between lawmakers from ODM and their counterparts from Kenya Kwanza to agree on how we are going to create strong mechanisms and unite the country to push it forward.”

Technical committee

The meeting comes on the backdrop on the formation of a five-member technical committee tasked with overseeing the implementation of the 10 point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between Ruto and Raila in March this year.

According to insiders, the closed-door session is expected to carry significant weight as it could shape the government’s legislative priorities and influence the country’s political direction in the run-up to the 2027 General Election.

Political pundits argue that although President Ruto will use the joint meeting to showcase his numbers ahead of the 2027 polls, the rebellion against him by some youthful MPs are building them politically.

“Kenyan politics thrives in rebellion. The likes of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino are increasingly becoming popular because of rebellion. They are good students of Ruto himself. He rebelled against his own boss, President Uhuru, throughout,” said Political analyst and High Court advocate Martin Oloo.

He went on: “Rebellion pays in politics. Sifuna, Owino and Amisi are actually gaining traction because rebellion is a substance within which politics is made.”

Political analyst Martin Andati on his part argued that both President Ruto and Raila want to do the joint PG so that they are able to start addressing the 10 point agenda, which is very critical in addressing some of the things that Kenyans want.

“They will definitely issue a statement on the state of the 10-point agenda and the other issues that they have agreed to address with a clear roadmap and timelines. The joint PG will also lay the basis of strengthening the working relationship between the two parties, with the possibility of upgrading the working arrangements from a cooperation agreement to possibly moving towards forming a formal coalition,” said Andati.

The Sifuna axis has already made up their minds about William Ruto and are very clear that they will not support his re-election, irrespective of whatever he does or doesn’t do going forward.

However, according to political commentator Dismas Mokua, the Joint Parliamentary Group meeting is expected to align the Broad-Based legislative agenda and priorities. It will be a special-purpose vehicle to manage expectations and offer legislators clarity on President Ruto and Raila Odinga’s 2027 priorities.

Legislators not aligned to Broad-Based Government philosophy may have the opportunity to have their concerns addressed. There is a very high probability that the Joint Parliamentary Group will start creating systems and infrastructure for the 2027 elections that include the reincarnation of the Pentagon. The Pentagon that was made up of, inter alia, President Ruto, Raila and Mudavadi is potentially a 2027 game changer if anchored in equity and equality,” said Mokua.

He added: “Both President Ruto and Raila have the yam and the knife given Kenya’s ethnic composition, voting patterns and resources. They have capacity to arrange their ducks  in a row. Probability of a political rebellion rocking the boat is almost zero given the 2027 general elections variables and dynamics.”

Should ODM and UDA merge, it will further put Raila and his brigade in a precarious situation, a move that could make his lieutenants lose some lucrative parliamentary leadership positions.

“ODM has one leg on government and one leg in the Opposition. They should do the honourable thing – should they consummate the marriage on Monday (today) to UDA with a Joint PG – and vacate the offices of the Minority, including Leader and Chief Whip of both Houses,” said.