As the 2027 general election approaches, Kenya’s political landscape is steadily taking shape, though many questions remain—particularly within the ODM party and the broader Azimio coalition.

At the centre of this unfolding drama is Raila Odinga, the veteran opposition leader and ODM party head, who continues to keep the nation, his allies and supporters guessing about his political future.

Political analyst Javas Bigambo says Raila has adopted the strategy to keep his supporters and Kenyans guessing over his 2027 choice as a weapon to keep his ODM party intact and strong for use as a bargaining tool.

“Raila’s heart is supporting President Ruto while his mind is with his supporters. His heart pumps blood into the broad-based government while his mind is giving him dreams and nightmares of his supporters,” says Bigambo.

According to Bichange, Raila wants to ensure that he keeps ODM politically attractive so that it attracts as many aspirants before he seals a deal with Ruto before the general election.

“He doesn’t want ODM to die. He is a complicated politician who wants to eat his cake and have it at the same time. It is all about a question of playing around with the psychology of his supporters, “ Bigambo says.

As such, Bigambo says, Raila is working on a script that would see him control a good number of legislators through his ODM party after 2027 for bargaining purposes.

Sending mixed signals

While some of his allies—including Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and Siaya Governor James Orengo—insist that ODM must field its own presidential candidate in 2027, others within the party appear to be subtly aligning with President William Ruto, even expressing support for his potential re-election.

This internal rift has only deepened in the absence of a clear statement from Raila himself. Still, occasional hints from close allies—such as his sister, Ruth Odinga—suggest he may yet make a sixth bid for the presidency.

In the midst of all this uncertainty, President Ruto has capitalised on the moment, making significant political and developmental inroads into Nyanza, a region traditionally loyal to Raila.

Through his Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA), Ruto has launched a strategic and well-orchestrated charm offensive, focusing on tangible development rather than political rhetoric.

Unlike previous administrations, Ruto’s government has prioritised Nyanza in several critical sectors.

These include affordable housing in urban centres like Kisumu, improved road infrastructure, expanded electricity access, and the modernisation of local markets to support small and medium enterprises.

One of the most symbolic and impactful projects has been the revitalisation of the Kisumu Port and its satellite feeder ports—a bold move that underscores Ruto’s intent to unlock the region’s economic potential.

Further signalling his commitment, Ruto commissioned the construction of a State Lodge in Homa Bay—a clear indication of his intent to institutionalise regular engagement with Nyanza leadership.

The lodge serves not only as a formal venue for high-level meetings but also as a powerful symbol: that Nyanza is no longer to be viewed merely as an opposition stronghold, but as a vital partner in national development.

This shift appeared to bear fruit during Ruto’s most recent visit to the region when Raila himself publicly welcomed the president and acknowledged his development efforts. Raila even went as far as telling local residents that Ruto was “doing well for Nyanza,” particularly in launching various economic stimulus projects.

Shortly thereafter, a delegation of Siaya leaders paid a courtesy call to Ruto at State House Nairobi—further evidence that the president’s outreach is reshaping the political terrain in the region.

Together, these developments paint the picture of a president not only seeking to win hearts and minds but also backing his promises with visible action.

They reflect a broader strategy to break traditional political barriers and reposition Ruto’s administration as inclusive and development-driven.

According to Dr Martin Oloo, a political science lecturer at the University of Nairobi, Raila has already communicated his intent to support Dr Ruto in 2027 without necessarily saying it verbally.

Dr Oloo says from his body language and actions, Raila has already shown his intent to support Ruto in 2027, a move he says has left a sharp division within his ODM party.

“But this time, his move has left more people questioning him than ever before, meaning that he may eventually cross over to Ruto camp without almost half of his supporters, unlike in the past when everyone went with him to any camp he joined,” Dr Oloo says.

However, beneath the wave of development and diplomacy, some abrupt and unexplained actions have left sections of Nyanza’s leadership uneasy.

Sudden political blunders

There is growing concern that sudden political blunders—viewed by some as overly aggressive—could derail the goodwill being cultivated.

Leaders are now urging the government to tread carefully, warning that any missteps could undo progress and rekindle historical mistrust.

Led by Siaya Senator Oburu Odinga, Gladys Wanga (Homa Bay governor), Dr James Nyikal (Seme), Millie Odhiambo (Suba North), Moses Kajwang’ (Homa Bay senator) and a host of legislators and leaders from Nyanza have threatened to reconsider their bromance with Ruto’s government over abductions, enforced disappearances, and the killing of Kasipul MP Ong’ondo Were and teacher Albert Ojwang’.

While Raila remains silent about his 2027 ambitions, effectively placing ODM in a state of political limbo, President Ruto continues to deepen both his political and developmental footprint in Nyanza.

The debate over ODM’s future was reignited by Kisumu County Woman Representative Ruth Oding’a—Raila’s sister—during the burial of Mama Silvia Lusi, 82, mother of Kisumu County Chief Officer for Health Dr Ojwang Lusi.

The ceremony took place in Nyangande Village, Nyando Constituency, on Saturday, June 7, 2025.

Flanked by top regional leaders, Ruth reiterated that Raila remains the ultimate decision-maker within the ODM party and that he alone will determine whether the Orange party goes solo, joins a coalition, aligns with Ruto’s administration, or opts for opposition in 2027.

“Let’s be patient and wait for Baba’s word,” she said, adding that Raila has never ruled out another presidential run.

Ruth’s sentiments were echoed by Kisumu Deputy Governor Mathews Owili, Nyakach MP Aduma Owuor, Seme MP James Nyikal, and several MCAs including Pete Oiko (Kabonyo Kanyagwal), Maurice Ngeta (Onjiko/Awasi), and nominated MCA Kennedy Ajwang.