Ruto’s ideological gamble: Will defiance sustain his presidency through 2027?
By Reuben Mwambingu, July 16, 2025President William Ruto’s political trajectory has been defined by ambition, resilience, and strategic defiance.
From his early days in the controversial Youth for Kanu ‘92 to his current seat at State House, Ruto has never disguised his intentions—he is a political tactician driven by calculation rather than sentiment.
As the country encounters mounting economic pressure and a surge in civic unrest, expectations that Ruto might transform his leadership style seem misplaced. His record suggests otherwise.
Throughout his career, Ruto has thrived in adversity. He has made a name out of swimming against the political tide, often choosing rebellion over consensus.
A progeny of former President Daniel Arap Moi, Ruto’s roots in the former ruling party, KANU, are unmistakable.
His rise from being an accused at the International Criminal Court (ICC) to occupying the highest office in the land is a testament to his shrewd manoeuvring.
Ruto’s political resilience mirrors the doctrines in Niccolò Machiavelli’s classic treatise The Prince—that a successful leader must be both a lion and a fox, fierce when needed and cunning when necessary.
In 1997, he burst onto the national scene by unseating veteran politician Reuben Chesire in Eldoret North. It was a bold move that saw him elected on a KANU ticket by defying the higher-ups within it.
From there, Ruto steadily carved out a political niche that defied orthodoxy.
Fast forward to today: amid discontent over governance, rising cost of living, and human rights concerns, Ruto faces renewed pressure to change.
But the man who defied the 2010 Constitution, opposed the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), and still secured victory against the country’s political heavyweights in 2022 is unlikely to bend easily.
Defying bandwagons
Political analyst and governance expert Javas Bigambo observes that Ruto’s 2022 campaign was rooted in a socio-economic ideology centred on the ‘Hustler’ narrative.
In 2027, he argues, the president will be tested on whether that ideological path bore tangible results.
“From 1997, when he challenged and defeated a political giant in Eldoret, Ruto positioned himself as a self-made, ideologically driven politician. He doesn’t jump on bandwagons—he charts his own course,” says Bigambo.
According to him, Ruto’s politics has been defined by identifying a cause, standing by it, and risking it all to defend it—regardless of its popularity.
Whether during his time in ODM’s Pentagon or when he broke ranks with President Uhuru Kenyatta, Ruto consistently resisted mainstream political alignments.
“He opposed the 2010 Constitution on moral and religious grounds, particularly on issues around family and abortion. Yet, after his election, he swore to uphold and defend the same Constitution. That’s how democracy works,” Bigambo explains.
Bigambo also credits Ruto for veering away from the ethnic-based political mobilisation that has historically dominated Kenya’s elections.
“In 2022, Ruto departed from the traditional ethnic script. His opponent, Raila Odinga, stuck to coalitions based on tribal alliances, while Ruto spoke directly to the economic frustrations of ordinary Kenyans,” says Bigambo.
In contrast, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, he argues, has regressed to ethnic rhetoric—something Ruto must avoid if he is to maintain national appeal.
“2027 will present Kenyans with a choice: politics of ideology or ethnic balkanisation. If Ruto reverts to tribal politics, he risks losing to someone more adept at that game—like Gachagua,” Bigambo warns.
He further notes that the concept of party coalitions is slowly losing relevance, with ideologies increasingly becoming the defining factor in political identity.
“Soon, manifestos will need to reflect real ideological commitments—not just empty promises or tribal arithmetic,” he adds.
So, can Ruto defend the ‘Hustler’ Promise? Whether Ruto’s ideological path will hold depends on the implementation of his 2022 manifesto.
However, Bigambo cautions against premature judgment.
“Assessing a presidency halfway through its term is like asking a third grader to pass an eighth-grade exam. The question is not whether Ruto has completed his promises, but whether there’s material evidence of progress,” he explains.
He notes that previous presidents—Uhuru Kenyatta and Mwai Kibaki—delivered their landmark projects towards the end of their terms.
Uhuru’s Expressway and Kibaki’s Thika Superhighway were second-term achievements.
In the first term, he argues, there was little to write home about Kibaki’s achievements. Because he was staggered by a referendum in 2005 and the push-and-pull because of the failure or the collapse of the MOU with Raila.
Unlike his predecessors, Ruto governs in an era where technology and digital activism have become integral to democracy.
“Today, every move is scrutinised in real time. Artificial intelligence and social media amplify both facts and misinformation instantly. Ruto must decide whether to leverage technology or be overwhelmed by it,” Bigambo says.
He warns that opposition leaders must also re-evaluate their strategies.
“In 2022, Raila Odinga and Martha Karua built their campaign on historical achievements in human rights and constitutional reform. But the election was about the economy, and they missed the mark”
On her part, governance analyst Nafula Kisiangani believes that while civic action is necessary, recent anti-government protests have become increasingly erratic.
“I didn’t vote for Ruto, and I’m not a supporter, but I think we need to be fair. Initially, the Gen Z protests were focused and justified—especially against the Finance Bill. But now, the movement seems to lack clarity,” she says.
Kisiangani argues that some of Kenya’s deep-rooted challenges, like corruption and poverty, have existed even before Ruto’s presidency and require systemic change.
“Let’s be honest, even before Ruto, we couldn’t afford basic necessities. During COVID-19, the government was busy with the BBI agenda, and I can recall those were tough times too. If we’re going to judge, let’s at least acknowledge what has worked. He’s managed to stabilise the dollar,” she argues.
She agrees that as president, Ruto must be held accountable— but cautions against reducing every failure of the State to one man.
“You can’t blame Ruto for every death or crisis. Sometimes it’s about entrenched interests and networks beyond the State House,” she says.
According to her, there is a spirit of rebellion across the country, where we seem to fight everything. We just want to fight because we want to fight, because “we are the people”.
“Even the police might not be happy with this government because they are also struggling with the economy. You go to start insulting them. We need to tell these children the truth. Let them know the boundary. Let them learn how to respect the authority. How to communicate with the authority. When they are right, we shall support them,” she insists.
As 2027 approaches, it remains to be seen whether Ruto will maintain his course as an ideologically driven leader or whether political expediency will push him into familiar, tribal territory.
Analysts believe his ability to defend his record and prove that his promises were not just campaign rhetoric may define whether he earns a second term—or becomes another footnote in Kenya’s political evolution.