Political analyst Peter Kagwanja has described the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) candidate Sammy Kamau Waweru’s victory in the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election as “inevitable,” likening the contest between the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and DCP to “eggs against stones.”

Speaking in an interview on July 16, 2026, Kagwanja framed the keenly watched poll as a high-stakes dress rehearsal for the 2027 General Election.

The by-election, triggered by the death of former Ol Kalou MP David Njuguna Kiaraho in March, turned into a fierce battleground in the Mt. Kenya region. Despite nine candidates on the ballot, Kagwanja noted it quickly became a two-horse race dominated by forces aligned to President William Ruto on the UDA side and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua on the DCP side.

2027 political test

“Both had a game plan pegged to 2027,” Kagwanja explained.

For Ruto, he said, the objective was to secure about 20 per cent of the vote as a measure of his support in the Mt. Kenya region, while Gachagua’s camp was targeting an overwhelming victory.

“UDA versus DCP was a battle of eggs against stones,” Kagwanja said. “If the stones fall on the eggs, the eggs will break. The victory was inevitable, but the question was the margin.”

Kagwanja said the Ol Kalou outcome reflected the political reality in the constituency, arguing that the contest had effectively narrowed to the two leading camps long before polling day.

He also observed that UDA candidate Samuel Muchina mounted a competitive campaign, but said the by-election reinforced that the Mt. Kenya political contest is increasingly centred on UDA and DCP.

Political reactions

The by-election attracted immediate reactions from political leaders across the divide.

Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) leader Eugene Wamalwa congratulated Kamau, saying the outcome demonstrated that “the ballot remains more powerful than intimidation, excessive force, or the politics of patronage.”

Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka also welcomed the outcome, describing it as a significant political statement ahead of the 2027 General Election.

Deputy President Kithure Kindiki congratulated Kamau ahead of the official declaration by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) and urged him to unite residents and serve all constituents without discrimination.

Kindiki also commended UDA candidate Samuel Muchina for conducting what he described as “a mature, issue-based campaign devoid of insults.”

Vote tallying continues

Muchina later conceded defeat before the official announcement, congratulating Kamau and wishing him well in serving the people of Ol Kalou.

The IEBC reported that voting proceeded largely peacefully, although it noted isolated incidents of violence and reminded the public to rely only on official communication from the commission.

Vote tallying and verification were still ongoing by the time political leaders and analysts reacted to the emerging results.

Kagwanja said the by-election had unfolded largely as expected and would provide an important reference point as political parties begin positioning themselves for the 2027 General Election.