Former Azimio Press Secretary Dennis Onsarigo has said that a divided Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) could pose a significant challenge for President William Ruto as he seeks to consolidate support from traditional opposition strongholds.

Even so, Onsarigo argues that a solid ODM would have been advantageous for the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA), especially in trying to win over counties historically loyal to the late Raila Odinga.

“A disaggregated ODM is going to be problematic for him, because this is how I look at it. Odinga’s support base spans nearly 20 counties across the coastal, pastoral, and northern regions,” he said in an interview on a local radio station on Wednesday, February 25, 2026.

Tana River, Kilifi, Mombasa, Taita Taveta, Kajiado, Narok, Laikipia, Samburu, Wajir, and Mandera are some of the counties that have consistently backed Odinga due to historical marginalisation.

“If these counties now feel they are part of this, if they feel welcome in this regime, then it is up to the President and his handlers to make sure that these counties are kept and whipped in one direction,” he said.

Fragmentations in some strongholds

Onsarigo also pointed to the uncertainty created by ODM’s fragmentation, particularly in the coastal and Gusii Nyanza, where communities are debating their political direction following the party’s internal splits.

ODM rival factions have escalated their power struggle, shifting the contest to the control of political bases long associated with the faction.

With the broader opposition also digging in, Raila’s traditional strongholds are now bracing for an influx of political activity, including the possible emergence of new parties targeting elective seats beyond the presidency.

For instance, in the Gusii region, Jubilee Party, under its Deputy Party leader Fred Matiang’I has stormed the turf to solidify its vote ahead of the 2027 showdown.

Ruto’s big gamble?

In a season defined by elite pacts, tactical confusion and loud propaganda, Matiang’i represents the one variable Ruto has struggled to neutralise: competence fused with regional credibility.

Recent political trends reinforce that perception. On November 27, 2025, pro-Matiang’i candidates swept all three by-elections in Nyamira’s Nyamaiya, Nyansiongo and Ekerenyo wards, a decisive signal that his political brand resonates locally.

The victories rattled both ODM operatives and UDA allies, some of whom have publicly dismissed the momentum as temporary.

Onsarigo warned that the ruling party cannot take ODM votes for granted.

“If I were William Ruto, I would sit in a room and say, I mean, how many votes can you bring for me on board?” he posed.

Onsarigo discussed the emergence of new factions, including the Linda Mwananchi group, noting that it is too early to determine its impact.

“We cannot see where Linda Mwananchi is going; it has not crystallised,” Onsarigo said, adding that potential alliances with the United opposition could further complicate political calculations.