Mukurwe-ini Member of Parliament (MP) John Kaguchia has sharply criticised President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) over its recent by-election victories, arguing that narrower margins signal eroding public backing despite heavy state involvement.

In a pointed X post dated today, Kaguchia challenged the ruling party’s narrative, writing, “Where exactly has Ruto’s Wheelbarrow party improved in all these by-elections? What was the winning margin in 2022 compared to now?”

Kaguchia’s remarks, posted just hours after the November 27 results, highlight perceived declines in UDA’s dominance, particularly in the Mt Kenya region.

He pointed to Mbeere North constituency in Embu County, where UDA’s Leonard Muthende secured victory by a slim 494 votes against the Democratic Party of Kenya’s Newton Kariuki, a stark contrast to the over 3,000-vote margin UDA enjoyed in the same area during the 2022 general elections.

Allegations of campaign manipulation

Kaguchia further alleged foul play, stating, “Even with full state machinery, billions poured into campaigns, and intimidation tactics used to create a manufactured perception, the numbers still tell a different story.”

He concluded with a dire warning: “If anything, the decline is louder than the propaganda. WanTam is a reality, and they might realise it when it’s already too late.”

The post, using the slang “Wantam” to signify “one term” for Ruto, has sparked heated online debate, amassing over 1,700 views, 65 likes, and dozens of replies ranging from supportive jabs at tribal politics to calls for Kaguchia to resign and face a by-election himself.

Contrasting narratives

The critique comes amid UDA’s broader success in the by-elections, where the party claimed 12 out of 21 contested seats.

UDA Secretary General Senator Hassan Omar hailed the results as evidence of Ruto’s continued popularity, detailing key triumphs in Baringo, Mbeere North, Malava, and Banisa, while praising female victors as a nod to women’s empowerment.

Government Spokesman Isaac Mwaura echoed this optimism, focusing on Mt Kenya’s “silent” loyalty to Ruto. “Some leaders are in denial that President Ruto has many silent admirers and supporters across the Mt Kenya region. He has managed to turn around the economy that was on its knees when he took over,” Mwaura wrote.

Yet skepticism persists. Former Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria warned against full UDA alignment, claiming, “Had I been in UDA, I would be the governor now. The people now crying Kasongo are the ones who mobilised people against me when I was warning them about aligning with Ruto’s party.”