Manyora: Why Mohammed Ali threatens Nassir in 2027 Mombasa gubernatorial race
By Mabonga Makhanu, November 1, 2025Seasoned political analyst Herman Manyora has weighed in on the 2027 Mombasa gubernatorial race, saying that Nyali MP Mohammed Ali might spell doom for incumbent Abdulswamad Sherrif Nassir.
While speaking during an interview on his YouTube channel on Friday, October 31, 2025, Manyora said that the coastal political dynamics have changed since the death of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga and are now appearing to favour Mohammed Ali, who has declared interest in the county’s top seat.
According to Manyora, Mohammed Ali, who has roots in northeastern Kenya, is a “really scary” candidate because he challenges the long-standing belief that Mombasa must be governed by a coastal politician.
The narrative has always been that leadership in Mombasa is a “coastal puzzle”, but Ali is shifting that conversation by introducing the non-coastal angle. Additionally, the presence of a strong opposition in Mombasa means Nassir cannot afford to feel secure.
He went further to say that it would have been easier for Nassir if Raila were still alive. The absence of Raila denies Nassir a father figure who was adored by the coastal people for years. What is happening in ODM after Raila’s death also means the party’s influence at the Coast is weakening. This puts Nassir at a significant disadvantage.
“Mohamed Ali is really scary. Because he comes with the thinking that it is possible for a non-coastal to be governor of Mombasa. The narrative has been, ‘It must be a coastal puzzle.’ Now he’s bringing the non-coastal angle. And number two, the presence of opposition in Mombasa means Nasir cannot sit pretty.” Manyora says.
Manyora added that ODM is now perceived as a Luo-dominated party, especially because of leaders like Gladys Wanga making sentiments that deprive the party of a national image. This perception diminishes ODM’s presence at the Coast, giving Nassir an uphill task.
He also said that aligning with Wiper now benefits Mohammed Ali, as the strong Kamba community in Mombasa would likely support him.
Aligning with opposition
Mohammed Ali, elected on a United Democratic Alliance (UDA) ticket, was recently spotted having separate meetings with leaders of the united opposition, including former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka.
Manyora says these put him at a significant advantage since the coastal natives have a history of favouring firebrand leaders who thrive in confrontation and are adamant about challenging the status quo, something that Nassir has been deprived of by being an ODM member, which entered into a broad-based arrangement with the UDA party.
He further noted that if Nassir takes a conservative, peaceful approach and supports President Ruto’s administration, he may struggle to excite the electorate, as coastal voters are drawn to conflict and political drama more than calm, conservative politics.