Seasoned political analyst Herman Manyora has stated that the recently defeated Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) candidate Seth Panyako would have won the Malava byelection seat if he had had better funding.

While speaking during an interview on his channel on Monday, December 1, 2025, the analyst emphasised that Panyako’s fall—despite being considered a strong contender—stemmed from his limited campaign resources.

 Manyora argued that the lack of adequate funding was the sole reason behind the United Opposition’s poor performance in the Malava by-election.

According to the analyst, opposition leaders failed to rally behind Panyako financially, even though a win for him would have strengthened the formation’s public image.

He insisted that even leaders who had no candidate in the race, such as former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, should have stepped in to support Panyako with their personal resources.

Personal contributions

Manyora suggested that senior opposition figures should have contributed generously—arguing that Gachagua and Kalonzo could easily have offered at least Ksh100 million each, DAP-K party boss Eugene Wamalwa at least Ksh10 million, and Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale another Ksh10 million. In his assessment, the united opposition needed not less than Ksh300 million to stand a real chance against UDA’s David Ndakwa.

“Seth Panyako would have won if he had good money; Eugene is supposed to have given Seth Panyako Ksh10 million.  Natembeya is supposed to have given him Ksh20 million, Gachagua was supposed to have given him Ksh100 million; Kalonzo is supposed to have given him Ksh100 million.”

He further warned the opposition that competing against a state-backed candidate without substantial financial muscle is nearly impossible.

Manyora predicted a repeat of the same outcome in the 2027 General Election if the opposition does not financially prepare itself, cautioning that the state is ready to spend heavily to secure victory. He advised leaders lacking the financial capacity to reconsider participating in the contest.

Oppositions claims

His remarks come amid growing claims from united opposition leaders accusing the state of engaging in voter bribery during the by-election. Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya echoed similar sentiments, noting that high poverty levels in Malava made it challenging for residents to resist financial incentives offered during campaigns.

However, he expressed confidence that by 2027, voters in the region will be more vigilant and less susceptible to such tactics.

In the tightly contested race, UDA’s David Ndakwa edged out Seth Panyako by a razor-thin margin, garnering 21,564 votes against Panyako’s 20,210. The united opposition has since vowed to prepare a watertight petition to challenge Ndakwa’s victory in court.