Is Orengo’s push shaking Ruto’s grip on the ODM base?
By Aloys Michael, March 31, 2026A fresh political contest is taking shape in the opposition strongholds, with Siaya Governor James Orengo emerging as a key figure challenging President William Ruto’s growing influence within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) base.
Allies of President Ruto have now warned against what they describe as Orengo’s new revolution, urging residents of the Nyanza region to remain aligned with the government under the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
The pushback comes as Orengo positions himself at the centre of the Linda Mwananchi movement, a political formation seeking to make President Ruto a one-term leader ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The movement is also openly opposed to a faction within ODM that supports working with the government.
That rival faction is led by Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga, who took over party leadership following the death of Raila Odinga in October 2025. Since then, ODM has been split into two camps: one backing President Ruto’s re-election bid, and another pushing for his removal from power.
Orengo’s critics argue that his political activism risks pushing the region back into opposition politics, potentially denying it the benefits of being aligned with the government.
“I want to caution those telling this community about a revolution. There is a debate going on in this part of the country. Orengo has been talking about revolution. And you know, Orengo has been talking about revolution from Jomo Kenyatta’s time up to now. And there is our brother Oburu, who is saying, ‘We want power to transform our people.’ So, I want to plead with you, go for power any day. Don’t be lied to about opposition,” Senate Majority Leader Aaron Cheruiyot said.
Cheruiyot’s remarks follow growing concern within government ranks that Orengo’s message could resonate deeply in ODM strongholds, particularly in Luo Nyanza, where political loyalty has historically been firm but is now increasingly contested.
Broad-based quagmire?
At the centre of the dispute is the question of whether ODM should remain part of a broad-based government arrangement initiated by Raila before his death. Supporters of this arrangement argue it was meant to preserve party unity and ensure access to power.
However, Orengo’s camp disputes the legitimacy of that cooperation.
“These individuals actually negotiated positions for themselves. It has no instrument. It has no legal foundation. There is no agreement. There is nothing. Raila signed, like he signed the MOU, that there’s an arrangement in which ODM is participating in a broad-based government. This was a measure taken by Raila to make sure that unity in the party was maintained so that those who had negotiated for themselves to go into government would not be seen to be tearing the party apart,” Orengo said.
“But the truth of the matter has been told many times, and Raila himself talked about it, that these individuals actually negotiated positions for themselves.”
The Oburu-led faction, popularly known as the Tutam (two-term) team, includes ODM chairperson Gladys Wanga and Deputy Party Leader Abdulswamad Nassir. They are campaigning for President Ruto to serve two terms.
On the other side is Orengo’s Wantam (one-term) group, which has attracted key figures such as the embattled ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, among others.
Beyond internal ODM politics, Orengo’s influence is also being felt in broader opposition realignments. Some leaders allied to the Linda Mwananchi movement are working to build support in Kisii and Nyamira counties, in favour of Jubilee Party leader Fred Matiang’i as a potential presidential contender.
In response, pro-government ODM leaders have launched the Linda Ground (Protect the Ground) campaign to consolidate support for President Ruto in traditional ODM zones.
Orengo the man
Despite the political divisions, Orengo’s long history as a reformist and opposition figure gives him credibility among voters who feel disconnected from the current power-sharing arrangement.
His activism dates back decades, including his role in the pro-democracy struggles that led to the reintroduction of multiparty politics in the early 1990s.
That legacy, combined with his current mobilisation efforts, could complicate President Ruto’s attempts to secure overwhelming support in Nyanza.
While it remains unclear whether Orengo’s movement will coalesce around a single presidential candidate, his ability to fragment the ODM vote could prove decisive.
For President Ruto, the risk is not necessarily losing the region outright, but failing to achieve the level of dominance needed to secure a comfortable re-election.
As the 2027 race slowly takes shape, the battle for ODM’s political soul and its loyal voter base appears far from settled.