Kenya is staring at a looming constitutional crisis that threatens to derail the 2027 General Election. Lawyers are warning that the entire results could be nullified by the courts if the General Election is conducted before the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) reviews constituency boundaries as required by law. 

Constitutional lawyer Charles Kanjama and Gad Awuonda, who was one of the members of the late Nzamba Kitonga-led Committee of Experts (CoE) that drafted the 2010 Constitution have raised an alarm over the current state at IEBC. They are warning that the country is hurtling towards legal and electoral chaos due to the prolonged absence of a fully constituted electoral commission. 

President William Ruto early last month gazetted the appointment of Erastus Edung Ethekon (chairperson), Ann Njeri Nderitu, Moses Alutalala Mukhwana, Mary Karen Sorobit, Hassan Noor Hassan, Prof Francis Odhiambo Aduol and Fahima Araphat Abdallah as the new IEBC commissioners, sparking protests from the opposition and civil society who claim they were not consulted. 

The gazettement contravened an order issued by Justice Lawrence Mugambi on May 19, 2025, blocking their gazettement, swearing-in and assumption of office.

Mugambi had, however, given a greenlight for Parliament to proceed with the vetting of the nominees, pending the outcome of a petition challenging the nomination process. 

“The Constitution is unambiguous—a nonexistent commission cannot perform its duties. And that includes the crucial task of reviewing electoral boundaries,” Kanjama said. 

The last boundary review was in 2012. According to Article 89 of the Constitution, the IEBC is mandated to review constituency and ward boundaries at intervals of not less than eight years and not more than 12 years. That deadline lapses in 2024—or at the latest, 2025—meaning the review must be completed well before the next elections. 

However, the commission has remained in limbo since the fallout following the disputed 2022 elections, which led to the exit of all commissioners.

As a result, the IEBC has been unable to perform critical functions, including overseeing by-elections, preparing for the 2027 polls, or reviewing boundaries—all key pillars of a credible electoral process. 

“Even if the timelines have already lapsed, the law still expects the commissioners, once in office, to conduct the review,” said Kanjama. “The delay doesn’t absolve them. It only deepens the crisis. This is not a task they can avoid — it must be done.” 

The risks of going into the next general election without a boundary review are enormous. Legal scholars warn that such an election could be declared unconstitutional due to existing disparities in constituency sizes. 

For instance, some urban constituencies, such as Embakasi East and Ruiru, have ballooned in population, while others remain grossly underpopulated—a clear violation of the constitutional principle of equal representation. Holding elections under outdated boundaries opens the floodgates for constitutional challenges.  

Experts say courts could invalidate the entire 2027 General Election, setting off a domino effect of legal and political turmoil.

Following the looming crisis, constitutional experts now warn that the country is now staring at an even deeper constitutional crisis. For instance, courts may declare the elections null and void if held under illegal electoral boundaries. 

Parliament and county assemblies risk being declared improperly constituted, shaking the very foundations of governance. 

“The question presents a concerning dilemma for Kenya. On the one hand, it spotlights the need to strictly adhere to the letter of the constitution, which, in this matter, is deliberate and unambiguous. On the other hand, it calls for Solomonic wisdom to the ramifications that a judgment that sends everything tumbling down due to noncompliance with Article 89 of the Constitution may entail,” Awuonda says. 

“It should not close its eyes to the deleterious implications of putting off elections, for example, which is bound to have grave constitutional and practical consequences,” Awuonda warns. 

He suggests that IEBC must move with speed to work on the boundary review issue. 

Awuonda says the court will have to balance all considerations at play while ensuring that it does not set precedence for negligent or deliberate non-compliance in future. 

Crippled organisation 

He says a court-mandated and strict process for the carrying out of the boundaries review exercise may just be what the country urgently needs. 

“The court will be expected to be innovative here. A court may be persuaded to go in that direction, but that would have unnecessarily negative consequences for the country. The question should be determined before elections,” he says. 

Besides, the country could find itself entangled in a glaring legal limbo whereby laws, budgets, and taxes passed by an illegitimate legislature could be challenged in court, crippling government operations. 

The uncertainty could trigger widespread protests, litigation, and even calls for election boycotts, throwing the country into chaos. 

Adding his voice to the calls for urgent reconstitution of IEBC, Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi blames President Ruto’s government for allegedly orchestrating the failure to reconstitute the electoral agency. 

“The Kenya Kwanza team is well aware that they lost the support they had in 2022 and if the elections were to be called today, they would all be sent home. This is the reason why the President and his team are not keen on having the elections any time soon,” he claimed. 

Mwangangi claims that the Kenya Kwanza administration has been erecting bottlenecks along the way to frustrate IEBC from coming into existence, starting from the failure to consult the opposition in the shortlisting of the nominees. 

“But President Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga should know they are leading the country into abyss. By August 2027, the tenure of both Parliament and County Assemblies will cease, and only the President could remain in office, leading to a serious constitutional crisis,” he warned. 

The crisis traces back to early 2023 when former IEBC chairman Wafula Chebukati and commissioners Boya Molu and Abdi Guliye retired.

Their exit followed closely on the heels of the resignation of three other commissioners in December 2022 and the removal of another through a tribunal. 

Since then, the IEBC has remained crippled. It has neither conducted by-elections nor initiated the boundary review. In its 2024 report, the secretariat admitted that even basic tasks like voter registration have stalled. 

IEBC Chief Executive Officer Marjan Hussein has already hinted at the challenge ahead, saying the timeline is too tight for a new commission to undertake all its constitutional mandates in time for the next General Election. 

“It will be difficult for the commission to work with these timelines,” Marjan admitted in an earlier interview. 

Once appointed, the new commissioners will face a daunting backlog. Among their first assignments will be the urgent conduct of seven parliamentary by-elections and nine ward-level by-elections. 

The parliamentary seats include Banisa (following the death of MP Kullow Hassan), Magarini (after the nullification of Harrison Kombe’s win), Ugunja (after Opiyo Wandayi joined the Cabinet), Malava (after the death of MP Malulu Injendi), Kasipul (following the murder of MP Ong’ondo Were), Mbeere North (after Geoffrey Ruku’s Cabinet appointment), and the Baringo Senate seat left vacant after the death of William Cheptumo. 

Wards needing by-elections include Angata Nanyokie, Chewani, Fafi, Kisa East, Lake Zone, Mumbuni, Narok Town, Nyamaiya, and Nyansiongo. 

Besides elections, the commission must also roll out nationwide voter registration, initiate electoral reforms, and implement institutional restructuring—all before the 2027 polls. 

With no time left, Kanjama says the solution is simple but urgent.  

Court cases challenging the selection process have only worsened the delays. But Kanjama warns that time is no longer a luxury. 

“This is not just about legal procedure. It’s a ticking constitutional time bomb. If the IEBC is not reconstituted soon, then we are staring at a full-blown electoral crisis—one that could shake the legitimacy of the 2027 elections to its core.” 

With the clock ticking and constitutional timelines already breached, Kenya’s electoral credibility—and democratic future—now hangs in the balance, according to constitutional experts.