Seasoned political analyst Herman Manyora has weighed in on Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna’s recent threat to quit the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) if former Prime Minister Raila Odinga joins forces with President William Ruto in the 2027 presidential race.

Speaking during an interview on Monday, August 4, 2025, Manyora dissected the implications of Sifuna’s bold stance and its possible effect on his political future, especially in the Nairobi senatorial race.

According to Manyora, the ODM Secretary General Sifuna does not need Raila Odinga’s direct endorsement to win the Nairobi senatorial seat.

 He argued that Sifuna’s influence, political maturity, and visibility have grown to the point where he can stand independently.

Even if Raila were to support another candidate, such as Governor Johnson Sakaja for governor, a person like Babu Owino could still win, as well as Sifuna, who could still retain his seat as long as he avoids directly confronting or disrespecting Raila.

“As long as Sifuna does not fight Raila directly or does not insult Raila, he can win the senatorial seat without Raila’s backing. In fact, Raila can back another candidate, and Sifuna can still win. Raila can back Sakaja, and Babu Owino can still win so long as they are not seen to be fighting directly with Raila Odinga,” Manyora stated.

Confronting Raila

He explained that in regions where Raila Odinga commands substantial political influence, any perceived attack or open rebellion against him would almost always result in political defeat.

Leaders can disagree with Raila, but once they are seen to be in open confrontation with him, it becomes their downfall. Manyora warned that for leaders within ODM or from areas heavily aligned with Raila, being seen to fight him is political suicide.

“If you are within reach of Raila in terms of constituency, or you are a leader in a place where Raila enjoys massive support, and you are a Raila man, you’re in ODM. To be seen to be fighting Raila directly will spell doom for you. You can differ with Raila and still win, but to be seen fighting Raila directly will spell doom for you,” he added.

Sifuna’s current political independence

Using a vivid analogy, Manyora likened Sifuna to a son who owes everything to his father, in this case, Raila Odinga, but who has grown up and can now build his own house. He said that while Sifuna rose under Raila’s political shadow, he now commands national respect and recognition.

 His growth in stature means that he no longer has to rely on Raila’s patronage to survive politically.

Manyora went further to note that ODM remains a key player in Kenya’s political space. If Raila were to shift allegiance to Ruto, the remaining segment of ODM would still carry significant weight. And in such a scenario, Sifuna would likely emerge as the face of that faction.

The opposition, Manyora said, would embrace Sifuna and likely ensure that no serious challenger runs against him for the Nairobi Senate seat.