Economist and political analyst Fred Ogola has claimed that the chaos witnessed at a church service in Othaya was not accidental but a carefully stage-managed political operation involving both President William Ruto and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

In an interview with a local TV station on Wednesday, January 28, 2026, Ogola argued that the violent scenes were deliberately organised to divert public attention from pressing national issues while creating the illusion of fierce political rivalry.

“This is actually my expertise. We call it the ABC of investigation. A: assume nothing. B: Believe nothing. C: Check everything. And I have done that in this case. What we are seeing is what I call managed opposition.”

According to Ogola, the Othaya incident fits a familiar pattern in many democracies where both the government and opposition benefit from controlled conflict, insisting that the attack was state-managed by both sides, which explains why, days later, no arrests have been made.

“When something is genuinely chaotic, heads roll. But here, no one will be arrested. This thing was co-planned. It is like two people pretending to fight on the street, and when you try to help one side, they both steal from you. That is exactly what has happened to the church and the citizens of Kenya,” he argued.

Moreover, he argued that Kenyans are being politically used, even in sacred spaces, to maintain a win-win status quo where each side appears to represent different groups of wananchi, without delivering real change.

“So long as people believe one side represents them and the other represents someone else, the system wins,” he said.

Gachagua on the police

Meanwhile, Gachagua has faulted the police for slow investigations following the January 25, 2026, Othaya church attack.

In an X post on Tuesday, January 27, 2026, Gachagua said he was disappointed that 48 hours after what he described as a brutal gun attack by a killer police squad, no arrests had been made.

“The leaders were shocked that no single arrest had been made despite assurances of swift action,” Gachagua stated, comparing the incident to the 2008 Kiambaa church attack.

However, Ogola sees this outrage as part of the script.

“A true opposition brings structural change. If you are fighting for education, healthcare, and the dignity of Wanjiku, then stop the country until something changes. Otherwise, it is just theatre.”