Why Africa’s rising trade still misses global value chains
By Aloys Michael, April 26, 2026Global trade is surging to unprecedented levels, with total merchandise exports projected to reach the equivalent of Ksh3.6 quadrillion by 2026.
But despite this expansion, Africa remains largely on the sidelines, its share of global trade barely shifting in more than two decades.
This widening gap between global growth and Africa’s participation is the focus of a new report by LEAF Africa, a leading independent, private institution focused on data, research, and strategic insight on Africa’s markets and economies.
Released Sunday, April 26, 2026, the Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook 2026 by LEAF reveals that while the world is trading more, Africa is not trading better.
According to the report, global exports have grown nearly fourfold, from about Ksh960 trillion in 2003 to Ksh3.6 quadrillion by 2026. Imports are also expected to rise to roughly Ksh3.7 quadrillion.
Yet Africa’s share of global exports has remained stubbornly flat at around 2.4 to 2.6 per cent, while its share of imports has only edged up slightly to about 2.9 per cent.
“Global merchandise trade is becoming larger in value, but its structure is changing gradually,” the report notes. Crucially, however, “trade is expanding globally without meaningfully increasing Africa’s weight in the system,” the report reads.
Growing markets, stagnant shares
This paradox lies at the heart of Africa’s trade dilemma. While global markets expand and new trade centres emerge, the continent continues to occupy a marginal position, exporting largely low-value commodities while importing higher-value finished goods.
The result is a structural imbalance that limits Africa’s ability to benefit from globalisation.
For exporters across the continent, this often translates into missed opportunities. Agricultural producers and mineral exporters remain locked into raw commodity markets, where price volatility is high, and value addition is minimal.
Meanwhile, logistical bottlenecks, from congested ports to weak transport networks, continue to raise the cost of accessing global markets.
Yet the report also says that a more encouraging trend closer to home: intra-African trade is rising.
Trade within the continent is projected to reach about Ksh27 trillion by 2026, up from Ksh17.4 trillion in 2020.
This growth reflects strengthening regional demand and the gradual impact of integration efforts such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
“This is important because stronger trade within Africa reduces dependence on distant markets and builds resilience against global shocks,” the report states.
However, this internal progress has not yet translated into stronger global positioning. Africa may be trading more with itself, but it is still struggling to compete effectively on the world stage.
The structural challenge
At the core of the issue is the continent’s limited industrial base. Without strong manufacturing sectors, many African economies lack the capacity to produce and export high-value goods at scale.
Countries such as Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa each face variations of this challenge, ranging from narrow export structures to declining industrial capacity and competitiveness constraints.
“The implication is that the continent remains at the margins of global trade, even as global trade centres shift and new opportunities emerge,” the report warns.
This marginalisation comes at a critical moment as global supply chains evolve and new markets open, Africa risks missing out on the next wave of trade-driven growth.
The report argues that reversing this trend will require a fundamental shift in strategy, from exporting raw materials to building value-added industries.
“The priority now is to strengthen export capacity, competitiveness, and regional trade integration,” it emphasises.
For policymakers, the report says that means investing in infrastructure, improving trade logistics, and supporting industries that can compete globally.
It also means leveraging regional integration as a stepping stone to broader global participation.