Listen to This Article Enhance your reading experience by listening to this article.

Azimio-One Kenya presidential candidate Raila Odinga is between a rock and a hard place — juggling to keep his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) afloat, yet still running  the coalition.

Raila, who has the support of more than 20 political parties under the Azimio coalition, has to ensure that ODM garners majority seats on August 9, while at the same time appeasing coalition affiliate parties.

The former premier is reportedly concerned that the stiff challenge posed to ODM in its traditional strongholds could deny it key seats in Parliament, and thereby make him a lame duck president if he wins the polls. He would then be exposed to possible impeachment, political blackmail and manipulation. 

Some Azimio affiliates are said to be eating into ODM’s strongholds of Nyanza, Western, Coast and North Eastern.

In Nyanza and Western regions, ODM is facing stiff challenge from Defence Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa’s Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K), Ugenya MP David Ochieng’s Movement for Democracy and Growth (MDG), Kanu, United Democratic Movement (UDM), Jubilee, United Democratic Party (UDP) and Narc.

His allies say he might have a challenge pushing his agenda in Parliament should he win the presidential poll but lose the parliamentary one through his party ODM. Without the majority of seats in the National Assembly and Senate, the former Prime Minister could be taken hostage by lawmakers from both Azimio parties and Deputy President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

Aware that some of the political parties in Azimio supporting his bid could bring more members to the negotiating table, Raila has unleashed some close lieutenants to comb his political bastion to ensure that ODM gets sufficient numbers to remain afloat.

While calling on the electorate in Nyanza to back ODM candidates on August 9, Siaya Senator James Orengo and East African Legislative Assembly member Oburu Oginga say the predicament currently  facing United States President Joe Biden —  where he has not been able to drive his agenda through the US Congress — could befall Raila.

 Many thresholds

“Numbers matter in presidential elections, percentages matter, votes garnered in every county matter, because there are many thresholds that must be met. Everybody here is of the opinion and resolve that we must go out there and get people to vote,” Orengo said.

ODM deputy party leader and Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya says Raila has issued express instructions to heighten campaigns for a six-piece voting pattern in their strongholds.

“It is a matter of grave concern. All ODM leaders have been told to do everything under their power to ensure that the party garners enough seats on August 9,” said Oparanya.

But this has not gone down well with affiliate partners, some of which are accusing ODM of intimidation.

“We are petitioning our presidential candidate Raila to intervene in this matter of zoning, otherwise bullying by ODM will cost him presidential votes,” said Sammy Aina, Kakamega Jubilee Senate aspirant.

Declining support

Since the disputed 2007 presidential polls, the number of elected MPs in Raila’s ODM has been declining, raising fears that this could continue on August 9 unless a new strategy is devised.

In 2007, Raila’s Orange party got 99 elected MPs to the National Assembly; in 2013 (78) and in 2017 ( 59). 

ODM bigwigs also fear that should they not address the root cause of the dwindling fortunes of ODM, the party’s prospects after the polls could dissipate and maybe even die by 2027.

Political analyst Javans Bigambo blames lack of strategic leadership, brinkmanship and coalition formations for this decline. And commentator Martin Andati avers that ODM could continue decreasing in influence, thanks to zoning and coalitions.

On his part, ODM chairman John Mbadi admits that the party has been losing MPs in every election owing to pre-election coalitions.