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As the 2027 general election approaches, it is evident that no vehement opposition has emerged to challenge the incumbent President Ruto. Despite any criticisms or name-calling, the outcome of the 2027 election has already been determined. President Ruto’s chances of securing re-election are high. And he has Kenyans to thank!

Opportunities often come dressed in dirty overalls, and for President Ruto, his came in June last year during the much publicised Maandamano protests. This event became a turning point for many, but politically, it turned out to be a blessing in disguise for President Ruto. The advantage is that they occurred early in his tenure, allowing him time to strategise and address his political challenges.

Saying goes, “Better the devil you know than the angel you do not.” Kenyans sift through the chaff for President Ruto. He knows his ‘devils’ and his ‘angels’ politically. In Politics, Sun Tzu advised that it is better to keep your friends close, and your enemies closer because knowledge of both friend and foe is crucial for success. One must remain aware of the intentions and movements of potential threats while maintaining strong connections with allies. That is what President Ruto did. He brought all he deemed his potential political opponents into a broad-based government!

The political turbulence served as a political awakening for President Ruto, paving the way for a fresh approach to politics that may lead to his successful re-election. It forced him to confront the realities of his leadership and the needs of the people. Being an elected President, the political dubbing gave him a chance to change his tactics and strategies for the upcoming elections. If the demos were to happen towards the end of his term, it would be his biggest challenge.

The protests marked the beginning and consolidation of his re-election trump card. It highlighted the importance of listening to the voices of the citizens and addressing their concerns. This shift in focus and dedication may secure his position for another term in office.

President Ruto’s key strategy for the 2027 elections appears to revolve around strategic coalition-building. By positioning himself as a unifying leader capable of appealing to different factions within Kenya’s political landscape, he aims to secure his re-election. The broad-based government that now includes members from Raila Odinga’s faction and Uhuru’s seems to have quelled the bourgeoisie but not the proletariat. The trump card he used in the last election might as well work against him: the return of the haves and the have-nots.

President Ruto’s focus on coalition-building reflects a shrewd understanding of the complex dynamics of Kenyan politics. By reaching out to various groups and demonstrating his ability to bridge divides, he is positioning himself as a leader who can bring political stability and progress to the country. President Ruto’s determination to secure a second term is evident in his strategic response to formidable opponents like Raila, whom he backs for the African Union Commission chairperson position. His efforts to consolidate support in key regions like Western, Central and Nyanza, highlight the importance of grassroots connections and regional alliances in the political landscape of Kenya.

For the opposition, all is not lost. The lion cannot protect himself from traps and the fox cannot defend himself from wolves. Therefore, the opposition must be a fox to recognise traps and a lion to frighten wolves. Effective leadership requires both cunning and strength, knowing when to be strategic like a fox and when to be forceful like a lion.

— The writer is an Innovations Evangelist and a PhD Candidate; [email protected]