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It is now clear that winning the forthcoming presidential election will depend on three perspectives and contexts—demographics, strategy and public image.

Never in the history of electoral politics in Kenya has political branding assumed greater significance than in this year’s contest.

The two leading contenders—Deputy President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga—have gone to great lengths to project their candidatures on platforms they believe will attract the maximum votes to win. Both have invested heavily in human, financial and material capital on their public image fronted by their individual personae and political organisation.

Political branding is about how a political organisation or individual is perceived by the public. It is broader than the product, whereas a product has distinct functional parts such as a politician and policy. A political brand is the overarching feeling, impression, association or image the public has towards a politician, political organisation, or nation.

What better illustration to reflect on political branding than in the epic electoral battle between Ruto and his Kenya Kwanza and Raila with his Azimio-One Kenya formations?

Both candidates have relied on opinion polls (internal and external) to gauge their political strength and the game of numbers (demographics). That is why those who find themselves disfavoured by opinion polls are sensitive and quick to dismiss them.

But first, back to the basics of public imagery and political branding that have so prominently defined the gruelling 2022 presidential electoral race.

Based on the three contexts underpinning this contest (ethnicity, strategy and image) and the latest opinion polls, Raila appears to have the advantage going into the last leg of the race. I have occasionally interacted with him for 30 years since the days of the Forum for Restoration of Democracy (Ford) led by his father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, the last close encounter in December at a private function where he exuded confidence as he enumerated his goals for Kenyans.

A unique thing about Raila is his sharp memory and capacity to cultivate wide support and counsel from grassroots leaders to political elites and professionals who help him read the signs of the times and polish his brand image. This combination of advisors, (no doubt aided by President Uhuru Kenyatta’s estrangement with his deputy plus the Handshake), has helped him unlock the biggest stumbling to his ascendancy to State House—the vote-rich Mt Kenya ethnic bloc.

Martha Karua’s nomination as his running mate has ruffled demographics in a constituency that has denied him votes in four previous attempts. Should he carve a slice of the Mt Kenya vote, then the optics point to a poignant poll victory, thanks to political branding. 

Notice the calculated move to detach from his campaign team individuals from his ethnic political base and stronghold in favour of leaders of regional/ethnic blocs from across the country embodying Azimio-One Kenya  brand of national unity, peace, social and economic justice.

This subtle brand image is a sharp contrast to that of belligerent adversaries constantly criticising opponents and a system they have belonged to or are still clinging to while making rather disruptive promises appealing to a restive constituency.

Before the ballot, it is worth remembering that political branding helps build a trusting relationship between political elites and consumers (voters).

Content analysis of news coverage and political campaign materials suggests that there could be a relationship between brand strength and electoral success.

— The writer comments on political and justice affairs—[email protected]