Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) lawmakers have found themselves in a quandary over whether to support the government’s legislative agenda in the House or remain in the opposition.

The dilemma arose following the latest political development that saw Raila allow four of his senior lieutenants to join President William Ruto’s Cabinet.

Though Raila denied the existence of a formal power sharing deal between his party and the President Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza coalition, insisting the four agreed to join the Cabinet in their individual capacities, his ODM allies from Nyanza region have vowed to work with the government in all ways.

Political analysts and critics now say Raila’s decision to allow his party officials to join President Ruto’s Cabinet is set to further weaken the opposition in Parliament where the President already enjoys control after luring more than 30 defectors to the government side.

Should the party whip all the remaining 83 loyal members to support its agenda in the House, President Ruto would be enjoying peaceful nights devoid of thoughts of having to use resources and energy to lobby for any support.

In a statement he last week, Raila sought to clarify that his party was still pushing for a conditional national conversation to address some of the concerns raised by the Gen Z movement behind the widespread protests across the country in the past one month. According to Raila, some of the conditions he wants to be met by President Ruto’s government include compensation of the victims of police brutality, the release of protesters from police custody and the prosecution of police officers captured on camera shooting peaceful protesters.

But the opposition chief did not indicate what action he would take, including whether he would withdraw his top aides including Wycliffe Oparanya, Hassan Joho, John Mbadi and Opiyo Wandayi from the Cabinet, if President Ruto fails to honour the conditions. And speaking in Siaya county over the weekend, Raila maintained that ODM has not entered into any coalition with the Kenya Kwanza government, insisting that the four joined the Cabinet as individuals.’

However, Prof Macharia Munene, a lecturer at USIU-Africa and a political analyst believes that ODM could only be playing it safe on the issue of coalition out of fear of public backlash and a strategy to keep the plum parliamentary positions.

“Technically they have joined the government, but because of their fear of receiving a backlash from members of the public, particularly the Generation Z who seem to have become impatient with the Kenya Kwanza government, they have decided to play it safe by hiding in the issue of not having entered into a coalition agreement,” says Prof Macharia.

National assembly

Besides, Prof Macharia says ODM does not want to come out clearly to confess her defection to government because it does not want to lose the positions of Leader of Minority and Chief Minority Whips in both the National Assembly and the Senate.

“But for how long shall they play this seek and hide game? Kenyans are waiting to see whether ODM members will support all the Cabinet Secretaries nominees, particularly those that the public had rejected and those with questionable integrity issues. People are waiting to see how they will be voting in Parliament,” says Prof Macharia.

Yesterday, most ODM legislators remained guarded over the issue, even as they confessed that no communication has been issued so far over the issue.

Interestingly, most of the ODM lawmakers from Nyanza openly confessed that they would support any government agenda proposed by any of the two nominees, Mbadi and Wandayi, from their region.

“Politics is about interests and if our interest at the time is in pushing the government agenda for the benefit of our people, so be it. For how long are the people of Nyanza going to remain outside the government?” says Homa Bay MP Opondo Kaluma.

Appear in parliament

According to Kaluma, all the nominees fronted by President Ruto should be given a clean bill of health by MPs and allowed to take up their offices.

Already, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka has instructed his lieutenants in parliament to the appointment of ODM members nominated for Cabinet Secretary positions.

The Azimio co-principal told members of his party not to approve the appointment of the four when they will appear in parliament for vetting.

Those four names (Mbadi, Oparanya, Joho and Wandayi), when they come to parliament for vetting, Wiper members should vote ‘No’,” Kalonzo told Wiper legislators at Kyuso Full Gospel Church on Sunday.

Kalonzo questioned how the four Cabinet nominees would work in a government that they strongly opposed on grounds of oppressing Kenyans.

“It would be a major political suicide if the ODM party tries to whip its members to support any government agenda in the House. We must remain in the opposition for our survival in 2027, otherwise we shall be blamed for all the ills committed by the Kenya Kwanza administration,” Funyula MP Oundo Mudenyo told the People Daily.

On the other hand, Seme MP Dr James Nyikal says ODM members would vote on the issues brought to the House according to their merits and demerits.

“There has been this misplaced perception that all MPs are usually whipped by the executive to push for her agenda in the House. Our voting pattern would be dependent on the merits of issues and not along government or party lines,” Dr Nyikal told the People Daily by telephone.

Like Raila, Dr Nyikal insists that the four senior party members joined the President Ruto government in their individual capacities and not as ODM members.

But one of Kalonzo’s key allies, Machakos deputy governor Francis Mwangangi challenged Raila and ODM to come out clearly and explain their role under the current political arrangement.