Wrestle for swing regions in Ruto, Raila State House duel

Jeremiah Kiplang’at

With less than six months to the August 9 polls, the country’s electoral map is getting clearer with some regions shaping up as battlegrounds that will determine who becomes the next president.

Ongoing realignment that saw the emergence of Kenya Kwanza Alliance and indications that President Uhuru Kenyatta will back Raila Odinga and Azimio movement for the presidency could alter the political landscape ahead of the polls.

Western, Central Kenya, Northern Eastern, Ukambani, Maa counties, Turkana, Meru, Nairobi and Coast are emerging as major battle grounds in the contest between Deputy President William Ruto and Raila, according to the latest opinion polls. 

Ruto and Raila teams have been making frantic trips to the swing regions on vote hunting missions while the President is said to planning a major onslaught on Mt Kenya region, which has been leaning towards Ruto, in an effort to turn the tables against his deputy. 

Yesterday, an opinion poll by  Trends and Insights Africa Research (Tifa) confirmed Ruto and Raila were still the top two candidates as it has been in the last two years.

Pollster found that Ruto leads nationally with 38 per cent followed by Raila at 27 per cent rating.  

Murang’a Senator Irung’u Kang’ata, a Ruto ally, said their strategy was against any confrontation with the President, instead opting for direct interaction with voters.

Ruto had endeared himself to Mt Kenya during his campaigns for Uhuru before their dramatic fallout and has been making numerous trips to the region where he retains the support of a considerable number of MPs.

“We welcome the President to our region. He is a Kenyan and has all the rights to visit any part of the country.

United Democratic Alliance is busy selling its vision and agenda. Mt Kenya will listen to him once he comes and we shall make our choices,” Kanga’ata said.

The five Central counties of Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kiambu, Murang’a and Kirinyaga command 3.1 million votes. 

With presidential goodies, the revival of the Jubilee Party, the region might end up being a crucial battleground.

Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka’s ambivalence on whether he will join Azimio or launch his presidential campaign under One Kenya Alliance has kept the Ukambani counties of Machakos, Makueni and Kitui in limbo.

Hard bargain

“Ukambani is restless and must wait for a signal from Kalonzo though the governors have resolved to rally behind Azimio.

Kalonzo’s role in giving the community direction will be a certain game changer. It appears he is working up the scales for a hard bargain with Raila.

If he joins Azimio the race will be sewn up for the ODM leader,” said Shariff-Peter Mogire, a political scientist.  

Governors Charity Ngilu (Kitui), Alfred Mutua (Machakos) and Kivutha Kibwana support Azimio and have asked Kalonzo to join them.

Ruto enjoys considerable support in Meru, Tharaka Nithi and Embu but the decision by Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Peter Munya not to run against Meru Governor Kiraitu Murungi could turn the tide in Azimio’s favour.

It was widely expected that Kiraitu would ditch Azimio for Ruto but Munya’s move renders the two a formidable forces against Kenya Kwanza. 

Kiraitu expressed a sigh of relief over the Munya decision said to have been reached with Uhuru’s involvement.

“I want to thank my brother Munya, he has taken off my stress and headache by making my work easy because I had planned to throw everything that I have to ensure I would defeat him because he could be my strongest competitor,” said a jubilant Kiraitu. 

Tharaka Nithi Governor Muthomi Njuki and Senator Kithure Kindiki are strong Ruto allies while Embu Governor Nyaga Wambora supports Azimio. 

Embu might be safe with the DP but National Assembly Speaker Justin Muturi, who hails from the area, is also running for the presidency and has been puncturing holes in Ruto’s and Raila’s bids.

Marsabit and Isiolo are also in the mix and are expected to be a toss-up despite the renewed interest in the region by the President.

Last week, Uhuru hosted a group of leaders from North Eastern where he impressed upon them to support Azimio. Isiolo Woman Rep Rehema Jaldesa, previously a strong Ruto ally, decamped, dealing a blow to UDA support in the county.

While Kakamega and Vihiga were firmly in Raila’s hold in the past elections, the recent coming together of Ruto, Amani National Congress chief Musalia Mudavadi and Ford Kenya’s Moses Wetang’ula could render the two counties major battle grounds with Bungoma tilting towards Kenya Kwanza.

Besides Wetang’ula who is the Bungoma Senator, MPs Dan Wanyama (Webuye West), Mwambu Mabonga (Bumula), John Waluke (Sirisia), Didmus Barasa (Kimilili) and Majimbo Kalasinga (Kabuchai) support Kenya Kwanza. 

New alliance

Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya has promised to lock the Western region for Raila despite the Musalia-Wetang’ula axis.

While Mudavadi who hails from Vihiga might move with a number of voters to his new alliance with Ruto, Kakamega and Busia seem to be leaning towards Azimio.

A section of the Luyhia community is strongly persuaded that it could land the big seat after a Raila presidency.

“Elijah Masinde, our prophet, once prophesied that one day Kenya’s leadership will come to Mulembe but that it will be through Lake Victoria.

That day is nearing. Raila will hand over the leadership to us in 2027,” said Defence Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa last week.

In Nyanza, Kisumu, Migori, Homa Bay and Siaya are considered locked for Raila, while Kisii and Nyamira are heavily tilting towards the Azimio leader.

Ruto has made dozens of visits to the area in the last three years with the hope of winning supporters.  The DP was back to the area last weekend to welcome Nyaribari Masaba MP Ezekiel Machogu to UDA.

The MP ditched Azimio and will run for the Kisii governor’s seat on the party. In the Coast, Raila has always enjoyed the support of majority of residents and the region is expected to largely favour him.

But Ruto is banking on his numerous trips to the region to deliver votes to him. This has already paid off after his candidate won the Msambweni parliamentary by-election in December 2020. 

Kwale Governor Salim Mvurya has already declared his support for the DP and was recently promoted to become a principal in the Kenya Kwanza Alliance. 

The other counties of Kilifi, Mombasa, Tana River and Taita Taveta are still considered pro-Raila. Lamu remains a toss-up. While Lamu Governor Fahim Twaha supports Azimio, Senator Anwar Oloitiptip backs Ruto. 

In Rift Valley, the DP is expected to bag a good percentage of the votes in Bomet, Kericho, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, Nandi, West Pokot, Samburu and Elgeyo-Marakwet.

However, he will have to work hard in Nakuru and Laikipia to fend off challenges from the area governors Lee Kinyanjui and Ndiritu Muriithi who are senior figures in Raila’s movement. 

In Narok and Kajiado, analysts say the picture is blurred for now, adding it was still a wait-and-see affair although they noted Narok was slowly shifting in favour of Raila despite Jubilee reaping big there in the last elections.

Noticeable shift

“It is still complicated in Narok and Kajiado but it will be clearer after the nominations in April. Raila has had his solid base in the region but for Ruto it remains to be seen how he will perform without Uhuru.

He is trying a lot to stand on his own without the President,” said Sironka ole Masharen, an author and political analyst. 

He said there was a noticeable shift in Narok that might see the Azimio leader tilt the area in his favour.

“In Narok, there is a paradigm shift. Raila appears to have a head start. The locals see him as a better alternative because of historical land issues.

In Kajiado, it depends on who the Kikuyu support. But UDA might pick MCA, MP seats because it has a following locally,” added Masharen.

In Turkana, it remains a dicey affair for the candidates as key figures from the area are in competing camps.

Outgoing Turkana Governor Josphat Nanok is leading Ruto’s campaign nationally while his rival, former Petroleum CS John Munyes, has been tasked with delivering the region to Raila.

“For the Rift counties, the DP has no competitor. Governors may not play a big role. In West Pokot, Lonyangapuo is on his own.

The Pokot people’s support for the DP may cost him his seat. For Trans Nzoia, the coming in of Wetang’ula and Mudavadi has given the DP confidence.

Since Turkana Governor is head of his campaigns, Ruto may benefit,” said Philip Chebunet, an analyst.

In Trans Nzoia, formation of the Democratic Action Party led by  Defence CS Eugene Wamalwa might still complicate matters for the DP.

The North Eastern region boasts of 600,000 votes and will play a significant role in the coming elections. A number of politicians from the area defected to Azimio last week leaving Ruto’s camp lighter in the vast region.  

In Nairobi, latest polls give Raila a significant lead.  The influence of Uhuru on city residents, especially the impact of Nairobi Metropolitan Services, could play a critical role.