Kenya will not participate in the College of Cardinals (Conclave) when it convenes at the Vatican in the next two to three weeks to elect the new Pope.

John Cardinal Njue, who became the second Kenyan to be elevated to cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI in 2007, after Cardinal Maurice Otunga, is now 81 years old, thus ineligible to vote.

Cardinal Njue, who resigned as Archbishop of Nairobi upon reaching 75 years as required by the Canon Law in 2021, and has since taken a low profile due to poor health, was in the Conclave that elected Pope Francis in 2013.

The maximum age of a Cardinal eligible to vote when the Pope either dies or is incapacitated is 80 years.

And the hope for the first African Pope since 698AC lies on Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson, a Vatican official aged 76.

Turkson was one of the Pope’s closest advisors on issues such as climate change and drew much attention by attending many conferences on behalf of the Pope.

Francis merged Turkson’s department in 2016 with three other offices, leading to what some saw as a power struggle between him and another cardinal.

Turkson resigned from that role in 2021 and was appointed to head two pontifical academies on sciences and social sciences. In 2023 he told the BBC he prayed “against” the possibility that he would be elected Pope, but some of his detractors said that given his media appearances, it appeared he was campaigning for the job.

Vocal advocate

Another African who might succeed the pope is Cardinal Robert Sarah, aged 79, from Guinea. He has been a vocal advocate of traditional Catholic teaching on sexual morality and the right to life and in denouncing Islamic radicalism.

Sarah has been described as largely sympathetic to liturgical practices prior to the Second Vatican Council but also proposed that different liturgies learn from each other and seek a middle ground.

There have been three other Black popes in the history of the Catholic Church: Pope Victor I, who headed the church from 189-199. Pope Miltiades (311-314) and Pope Gelasius 1, (492-496).

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippine is often called the “Asian Francis” because if elected, he would be the first pontiff from Asia.

Cardinal Juan Jose Omella, Archbishop of Barcelona, is a man after Pope Francis’ own heart. Unassuming and good-natured, he lives a humble life despite his lofty title, dedicating his church career to pastoral care, promoting social justice, and embodying a compassionate and inclusive vision of Catholicism.

Jean-Marc Aveline, archbishop of Marseille, French, aged 66, is known in some domestic Catholic circles as John XXIV, in a nod to his resemblance to Pope John XXIII, the round-faced reforming pope of the early 1960s.

Pope Francis once said that his successor might take the name of John XXIV.

If he got the top job, Aveline would become the first French pope since the 14th century, a turbulent period in which the papacy moved to Avignon.

He would also be the youngest pope since John Paul II. He understands but does not speak Italian – potentially a major drawback for a job that also carries the title Bishop of Rome and requires a lot of familiarity with Roman power games and intrigues.

Cardinal Peter Erdo, Hungarian, aged 72, if elected, would be seen as a compromise candidate – someone from the conservative camp who has nonetheless built bridges with Francis’ progressive world.

Indeed, doctrinal and ideological positions may count as much as region of origin in the succession.

The leading conservatives are Cardinal Erd of Hungary and former leader of the Council of European Bishops’ Conferences. His election would be likely to be exploited by Hungarian President Viktor Orban’s authoritarian regime which cites theological justification for its Christian nationalist pronouncements.

Cardinal Mario Grech, secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, Maltese, aged 68 was appointed by Pope Francis to be secretary general of the Synod of Bishops – a heavyweight position within the Vatican.

Ticks boxes

Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle, Filipino, aged 67 who prefers his nickname, “Chito” seems to have all the boxes ticked to qualify him to be a pope. He has had decades of pastoral experience since his ordination to priesthood in 1982. He then gained administrative experience, first as bishop of Imus and then as archbishop of Manila.

The regional voting base of the cardinals is skewed towards Europe which has 20.4 per cent of the world’s Catholics but 40 per cent of the voting cardinals. Asia has 11 per cent of Catholics but 17 per cent of electors; in Africa the ratio is 20 per cent to 13.3 per cent; in North America it’s 20.4 per cent to 14 per cent. But Latin America is at the sharpest disadvantage with 27.4 per cent of the world’s Catholics and just 12.6 per cent of voting Catholics.