TIFA: Only 19% of ODM supporters want Ruto as 2027 candidate
By Cy Muganda, December 23, 2025A new opinion poll has revealed deep divisions within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) over the 2027 presidential race, with only a small minority of party supporters backing President William Ruto as their preferred candidate.
According to the latest TIFA Research survey released on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, merely 19% of ODM supporters want the party to choose and support Ruto as its candidate if he joins ODM and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA)/Kenya Kwanza coalition has no candidate.
Split choices
The survey highlighted sharp divisions among ODM supporters on the party’s 2027 presidential strategy, with preferences spread across four different options.
A clear plurality of 34% want ODM to “choose and support some current ODM leader as the candidate,” making it the most popular choice among party followers.
Another 20% prefer the party to “help choose and support another Azimio-Opposition leader as the candidate,” while nearly a quarter (24%) believe ODM should “support no one but leave it to ODM voters to make their own choice.”
“However comfortable most ODM leaders – especially their elected leaders and senior government officials serving in the Kenya Kwanza government – appear to be, only a modest minority of the Orange party’s supporters appear committed to backing President Ruto for a second term,” TIFA stated in its analysis.
The poll, conducted between November 10 and 17, 2025, interviewed 2,053 randomly selected Kenyan adults across all 47 counties with a margin of error of ±2.16%.