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In the period leading to 2050, it is envisaged that an empowered Africa while embracing technology and networking will,  have overcome barriers and create new opportunities for its people

Migration experts say improved mobility and opportunities will lessen the urge for Africans to migrate outside the continent as nations adopt free movement protocol to drive economic growth in the region.

Additionally, the continent will also have developed policies to attract African foreign-born and foreign-trained talents to return to the continent to take up jobs in the many sectors of the economy.

The African Migration Report by the International Migration Organisation (IOM) says that dynamics of movement across the continent are expected to change  as technological upgrade and acceptance by the inhabitants of the continent adopts to change.

To predict the state of migration within and beyond Africa within this period, experts are closing in on three possible future development pathways which are likely to disrupt the current migration trends, especially among the global south countries.

Through a rather ambitious method referred to as backcasting, they have created a futurist approach to migration where they first create plausible future visions for Africa and then examine the possible paths that could lead to their realization.

“In other words, rather than looking from the present towards the future, we look from the future back to the present. The scenarios (established through backcasting) explore the interplay of external factors and the policies that are adopted to address them,” the experts said in the Africa Migration Report.

Fundamental questions

However, there are fundamental questions that must be answered since developments are causing critical uncertainties as leaders and decision-makers try to understand the dynamic scenarios for migration in the next three decades.

“In the (migration) scenarios, developments towards 2050 are looked, far enough into the future to show substantial changes compared with today, yet close enough to the present to be relevant and recognizable,” the report reads.

Experts are seeking to understand whether technology will create increased prosperity for all or will further divide nations and societies by increasing inequality and polarization.

Further, the question of trade barriers arises and it remains to be seen whether the developed world will eliminate them to allow market access, promote documented migration, eliminate Illicit financial flows and reduce the debt burden on Africa.

Again it is uncertain whether oil and gas resources will remain an important economic factor by 2050 or if the transition to renewable energy be complete by then.

Regarded as a conservative society, it remains to be seen if Africa will strive to become culturally liberal like the Western world or if it will develop a future with a stronger, more local identity.

The report optimistically steers clear from creating a business-as-usual scenario for Africa noting that it is highly unrealistic to imagine such a case over a 30-year time frame.

“A dark future scenario can easily be painted where Africa suffers from effects of climate change and overpopulation and fails to find the stability, unity and cooperation needed to address these issues.”

“However such grim scenarios are only useful as warnings and could run the risk of leading to fatalism, while more balanced scenarios may inspire and call for motivated action and collaboration,” the report advises.

Internet access

The document says personal electronic devices, internet access and grassroots networks are important aspects of the future of an empowered Africa adding that significant advances have been achieved in gender equality in many countries where more women are contributing to the society and economic growth and have greater control over family decisions.

This wealth of connectivity and information, in addition to the expanding physical infrastructure like roads, railways, ports and other utilities is regarded as the backbone of an empowered Africa.

If such empowerment is realized across Africa by 2050, the continent will continue to lead in managing migration through its regional protocols and processes.

“Regional integration (in Africa), in part driven by the implementation of the African Union’s agenda 2063 and global cooperation on migration will have driven more interlinkages and made easier for Africans to move freely around the continent for work,” the report said adding that to compete for the best talent, African cities will be forced to invest in education infrastructures to thrive in technology-advanced societies.

The document further predicts that in the next three decades, developed countries will be fading from their hegemonic economic and political dominance.

Digital services and innovation

“Economic growth is low in Europe and the United States because manufacturing and digital services and innovation have largely moved to Asia and Africa. Most Western countries and most developed Asian ones have ageing, elderly populations and struggle with low fertility,” the document reads.

It adds: “But most Western countries failed to realize their economies are consumption-based, which automated production adopted to replace human labour cannot address. This strains the economy and a lot of infrastructure is crumbling down.”

Currently, the developed world is experiencing high rates of inflation even as its economy continues to be plagued by low innovation, eroding infrastructure and high levels of corruption while China and Japan, once the Asian powerhouses are limited by lack of young labour due to their ageing populations.

“Rather than making up for this deficit by importing labour from Africa, the high-tech nations have focused on developing robots and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to handle an increasing range of tasks. Lack of opportunities in the West and developed parts of the East of the globe, Africans are seeking fortunes inside Africa rather than outside,” the report stated adding that Africa continues to enjoy a level of stability creating room for long-term investments.

The document says that infrastructure projects around the continent attract many migrant workers who move on to the next project as soon as the current one is finished.

It calls for the full implementation of free movement protocols to enable experienced workers to find jobs as well as lowering restrictions on intra-African migrant workers to near free movement among African countries.

The report finally looks at migration the African way, where it proposes that countries in the continent can choose a uniquely African migration pathway that mixes cutting-edge technology with traditional African culture.

“In this scenario, Africa becomes a key destination for migration as many Westerners relocate to Africa to access the large growing market and take advantage of low production cost. Or elderly population from developed countries relocating to Africa for their golden years due to low living cost and improved quality of life,” the report explains