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 The country’s food situation is likely to take a turn for the worst following the continued spread of coronavarius disease (Covid-19) and the recent desert locust invasion, food stakeholders have warned.

Although farmers are hoarding maize at their stores, millers doubt their quality, claiming they could have high levels of aflatoxin making them unsuitable for human consuption. 

At the same time the government has run out of maize at the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) silos.

Stakeholders warn that in the event of a total lockdown following the spread of coronavirus, demand for food will eventually increase. 

Tegemeo Institute of Agricultural Policy and Development of Egerton University has moved to calm fears that the country is likely to face  a food crisis if the Covid-19 is not contained in the next two weeks.

Timothy Njagi, a senior research fellow with the institute, said farmers in the country have enough maize and called on the government and other value chain players to encourage consumers to only purchase what they need. 

In the last one week consumers have thronged supermarkets in panic mode resulting in an increase in food prices in some market segments.

“Panic buying could result in food wastage, especially if the spread is contained in the short term. The country food situation is stable at the moment.

There is no need for the market to panic as the impact of the same might take time before it is corrected,” said Njagi. 

Njagi, however, agreed that in long run there is need to allow imports to stabilise the market as the next harvest is expected in July from the early crop.

Strategic Food Reserve Oversight Board (SFROB) is yet to start buying maize from farmers despite holding more than Sh10 billion in its coffers.

Two weeks ago, the institution wrote to the Ministry of Agriculture requesting for importation of four million bags of white and yellow maize before May for flour and animal feeds production.

SFROB chairman Noah Wekesa said that the current food stocks, especially at the household, miller and traders levels, can only feed the country up to the end of April.

Selling prices

Farmers sell maize to millers and traders at between Sh2,700 and Sh2,800 compared to Sh3,200 for a 90kg bag in January.

Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Peter Munya is reported to have declined the importation request arguing an audit needed to be carried out first.

The minister’s stand rekindles memories of last year’s supremacy wars between the agriculture docket and SFROB.

Munya’s predecessor, Mwangi Kiunjuri aggressively pushed for importation of 12.5 million bags but the Cabinet rejected the request. 

“Yes we received the advisory and we are currently studying it,” said Principal Secretary Hamadi Boga. 

Two months ago, Munya hinted of merging NCPB and SFROB to end ceaseless supremacy wars.

But the board has dismissed the move saying it cannot be merged with NCPB as it was established under as different legislation

Food production

According to the ministry of Agriculture statistics, the country uses 42 million bags of maize both for flour and animal feeds production annually. 

Boga recently confirmed that the country produced 38 million bags in 2019 compared to 44 million bags recorded in 2018 following sustained rainfalls.

Desert locusts, which have so far invaded 20 counties could further worsen the food crisis. Locust being hatched currently, Njagi said, are likely to be more adaptable, posing a threat to food security.

United Grain Millers Association chair Ken Nyagah yesterday told Business Hub the maize available in major growing regions has very high levels of aflatoxin. 

“Available maize has high levels of aflatoxin forcing millers to factor in added cost as the commodity has to be tested again.

Maize being purchased from Meru, Embu, Machakos, Tharaka Nithi and Laikipia counties has levels of aflatoxin of more than 25 parts per billion (ppb) against recommended levels of 10ppb,” said Nyagah.