2027 elections set for record turnout as 94 per cent pledge to vote – TIFA survey
By Kiprono Keileb, September 24, 2025Kenya could be headed for one of its highest voter turnouts in history if the latest TIFA survey is anything to go by.
The research firm revealed that an overwhelming majority of Kenyans intend to cast their ballot in the 2027 General Election, with confidence in election integrity playing a key role in shaping this determination.
TIFA noted in the statement released on Wednesday, September 24, 2025, that Kenyans who believe the next election will be credible are far more likely to participate compared to those who are sceptical.
“Does confidence in an election encourage higher levels of participation? Based on this pair of TIFA findings, that certainly seems to be the case,” the research firm stated.
The findings point to a sharp difference in intention between two groups of Kenyans. According to TIFA, “Specifically, there is a striking difference in the expressed intention to vote in the next general elections between those who are ‘very confident’ that they will be ‘free and fair’ as opposed to those who are either ‘not confident at all’ about this or are ‘not sure’ about it (94% vs. 70% for both of the latter groups).”
This distinction underscores the weight of public trust in electoral institutions. For many Kenyans, the memory of contested elections and disputed outcomes remains fresh, and trust in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) continues to be a central theme in discussions about the country’s democratic health.
The survey also ties future voter participation to the performance of the yet-to-be-constituted IEBC team. TIFA observed, “As suggested earlier, the big first test the new set of IEBC Commissioners and Chair will have at the end of November may give a clearer indication as to how Kenyans feel about this issue.”
That test, analysts argue, will likely shape the narrative around trust and confidence in the institution’s ability to deliver a fair process. If Kenyans see tangible reforms and clarity from the commission, the 94 per cent who currently pledge to vote may well translate into a historic turnout on election day.
With less than two years to the polls, the survey paints a picture of a nation eager to exercise its democratic right but also one whose enthusiasm could be tempered by doubts about the credibility of the process.