During the recently concluded Nairobi International Book Fair, a reader of the political mood pointed out that Kenya is more polarised today than it was in 2007. Surprising as that observation was, it quickly gained traction among those present. This, for those of us who watch the goings-on in the political and public affairs arena, provides instant food for thought given the impending impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

All indications are that many MPs will vote in favour of the motion and there is little that the DP or his lawyers can do or say in his defence today to turn the tide in his favour, even with the support he appeared to enjoy during the public participation events of the weekend. Regardless of what ‘Wanjiku’, mama mboga or boda boda man said, for him, the die is cast, and his salvation lies in the Senate, where the threshold for impeaching him is higher and where a more elaborate trial will play out.

Whereas sending Gachagua packing will be the easy part, both President William Ruto and the current crop of MPs will require Solomonic wisdom to manage the fallout that will surely come in the wake of the impeachment. First, if the DP is kicked out, a bitter and long-drawn-out battle to succeed him is likely to lead to even greater polarisation between the top contenders and their respective supporters.

For starters, there is no guarantee that Interior CS Kithure Kindiki will be offered the position on a silver platter. Power, as a rule, concedes nothing except to superior power. In the same way, all political positions are earned, either through money or numbers (of loyal voters) and Kindiki falls short on both fronts. Another candidate is Prime CS Musalia Mudavadi, who is better endowed than Kindiki, in addition to having a presidential mien and a worthy ally in the name of National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, who has equally deep pockets.

Not to forget that the secret card remains up ODM leader Raila Odinga’s sleeve and he just might squeeze himself into the slot given that failure to accommodate him now will be Ruto’s biggest headache come 2027. With his chances of clinching the chairmanship of the African Union Commission growing slimmer with each rising sun, Odinga will have no option but to return him and either support Ruto for one last term – and earn a top berth in return – or go for the top seat himself. And being a shrewd politician, irrespective of the outcome of either choice, he is more likely to end up playing a major role in the post-2027 administration.

Between now and 2027, however, Kenya will experience seismic shifts in the political arena. In as much as Gachagua will lose the impending battle, he is too strong a political figure to be written off just yet and will be a strong fighting force in the longer war. His humiliation, which will come as surely as the sun will rise tomorrow, could be translated by his core base to mean the humiliation of “the mountain”. This will naturally trigger a rethink of the direction that voters from “Murima” will take as they slouch smarting towards 2027.

The mountain region has a demographic with the capacity to cut off its nose just to spite its face, politically speaking. And they have been known to do so in the past, particularly in 2022, when they turned their back on the then President Uhuru Kenyatta. Given their numbers, this is a vote base that cannot be ignored even if Ruto were to look elsewhere for new alliances.

And as they retreat to lick their wounds, it would not be surprising if they gain new allies and sympathisers. Already, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka has offered to work with leaders from the mountain, arguing that he owes Mwai Kibaki (and his base) a political debt for appointing him vice president in 2007. His allies have also described Mt Kenya communities as their “in-laws”, meaning that they are open to the idea of political cooperation.

Even as these forces take shape, MPs should stand advised to measure their decisions lest they be swept out of office by the wave that will start building should Gachagua be impeached.

— The writer is the Editor-in-Chief of the Nairobi Law Monthly and Nairobi Business Monthly; [email protected]