US-Iran conflict not good for East Africa
By Chebii Kiprono, June 28, 2025The world is once again on edge as drumbeats of war are echoing from the Persian Gulf, this time with even more alarming resonance. The intensifying standoff between the United States and Iran has evolved beyond rhetoric and sanctions.
It now teeters dangerously close to a military confrontation that could engulf not only the Middle East but also draw in regions and actors far removed from the epicentre.
Among those regions, East Africa—though geographically distant—would not be spared. In fact, it stands to lose much more than the world imagines.
But to understand why, we must begin from where it all started. The genesis of the US-Iran conflict is rooted in imperial intrigue and broken trust.
In 1953, the CIA staged a coup in Iran, toppling the nationalist Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh and reinstating the Shah, whose autocratic regime was propped up by American support. That alliance ended bitterly in 1979 with the Iranian Revolution, which saw Ayatollah Khomeini rise to power and Iran transform into an Islamic Republic deeply hostile to Western influence.
The subsequent hostage crisis at the US embassy in Tehran only deepened the enmity. Since then, the relationship has been characterised by cycles of sanctions, threats, and sporadic confrontations.
Deeply worrying
What makes the current situation different—and deeply worrying—is the scale and audacity of recent developments. Reports suggest that three of Iran’s key nuclear facilities have been damaged or destroyed in what are widely believed to be sophisticated acts of sabotage, allegedly by US or Israeli forces. Tehran has vowed retaliation.
Washington, ever wary of Iran’s ambitions, has hinted at pre-emptive strikes. The rhetoric is no longer hypothetical. The region is a matchstick away from ignition.
While most global attention remains fixed on Israel, Saudi Arabia, or the Gulf of Oman, East Africa lies quietly along the edges of this tension, vulnerable and unprepared. But make no mistake: we are not spectators. We are stakeholders—unwilling ones—in a geopolitical storm not of our own making.
East Africa’s proximity to the Red Sea and the Gulf gives it strategic relevance. Djibouti, for example, hosts the only permanent US military base in Africa—Camp Lemonnier—and has long been a logistical node in Washington’s global security architecture.
Iran, on its part, has cultivated ideological and military links in the Horn of Africa, especially in Sudan, Somalia, and to some extent, Eritrea.
In a full-blown US-Iran conflict, East Africa could find itself at the intersection of proxy battles, foreign surveillance, cyber intrusion, and even sabotage.
But beyond military calculations lie deeper, more devastating consequences—economic, political, humanitarian, and ideological.
Rise in fuel prices
The economic shock would be immediate and brutal. East Africa is heavily reliant on oil imports from the Gulf. A war would likely disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery through which over a fifth of the world’s oil passes.
Such disruption would send global oil prices soaring, and for East Africa—already reeling from inflation, rising debt burdens, and fragile post-COVID recoveries—this would be catastrophic.
Fuel prices affect everything: transport, food production, electricity, healthcare. The ripple effects would choke our already strained economies.
Then there is trade. Ports like Mombasa and Djibouti serve as critical entry points for imports and exports in the region. Instability in maritime routes—especially in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—would hike shipping costs, delay essential supplies, and reduce revenues.
Small businesses, already grappling with global supply chain disruptions, would suffer, and informal economies—on which millions survive—would be devastated.
But economics aside, the greater fear lies in security. East Africa is already under siege from extremism, with Al-Shabaab continuing to pose a serious threat in Somalia, Kenya, and Uganda.
A war between the US and Iran would undoubtedly be used by extremist groups to justify their cause, recruit fighters, and position themselves as part of a larger anti-Western resistance.
Iran has a known history of supporting proxy groups. The US, in turn, operates several covert missions across the region. In such a geopolitical chessboard, East African nations could become pawns, dragged into confrontations they neither understand nor benefit from.
Humanitarian toll
And let us not forget the humanitarian toll. Conflicts in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen have displaced millions. While those wars produced refugee flows toward Europe, East Africa already bears the burden of displaced persons from Sudan, South Sudan, the DRC, and Somalia.
Another wave, triggered by a broader Middle Eastern war, would overwhelm already stretched humanitarian agencies and destabilise border communities across Kenya, Ethiopia, and Uganda.
Diplomatically, the pressures would be equally corrosive. Nations like Kenya and Uganda, seen as strategic US allies, might be pressured to show support or offer logistical backing—alienating them from neighbours like Sudan that have historical links with Iran.
Such polarisation would fracture regional cooperation frameworks like the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and weaken continental diplomacy through the African Union.
The uncomfortable truth is this: East Africa has seen this story before. During the Cold War, we were not players—we were playgrounds. Our territories became proxy battlegrounds for American and Soviet ideologies. We endured civil wars, coups, and economic sabotage in the name of global competition.
Today, the script is dangerously familiar. Once again, we risk being treated as mere real estate in the imperial calculations of others.
East Africa must not remain silent. We must find our diplomatic voice. We must call for de-escalation, for dialogue, for negotiation, not war.
We must align ourselves with peace-seeking nations and push back against the toxic assumption that Africa can be conscripted into every global feud without question.
To remain indifferent is to invite disaster. Our economies cannot afford another shock. Our societies cannot bear another wave of violence or displacement.
Our sovereignty must not be sold for short-term alliances. We must act—not later, not tomorrow—but now. A war between the United States and Iran is not good for East Africa. Not now, not ever.
The writer is a Lecturer, Historian, Political Commentator and UASU Chapter Trustee at Alupe University, Kenya