As Americans vote, the world is watching to see if Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump will emerge victorious.

This election carries significant implications for the global order, especially as the world economy remains strained from the Covid-19 pandemic’s impact on supply chains, consumer behaviour shifts, and ongoing financial volatility.

The world has yet to recover from these challenges, and with additional issues like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, climate change, and rising energy costs, a Trump presidency could further destabilise global trade. Trump’s confrontational approach toward China, as seen during his previous administration, may intensify economic uncertainty. In contrast, while President Biden has had friction with China, his administration has de-escalated the trade war, fostering more stable global economic growth.

On the campaign trail, Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) message suggests an intensification of the U.S.-China trade war. Proposed measures include a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods, revoking China’s Most Favoured Nation status, and phasing out key imports from China.

Such actions could harm the global economy, reducing trade volume, stalling economic growth, and creating a climate of uncertainty. Trump’s approach indicates a return to isolationism, with American interests prioritised over multilateral cooperation, threatening global supply chains and driving up production costs worldwide.

A Trump victory could signal renewed US-China trade tensions, as he seeks to curb China’s economic and military influence. His policies could lead to tit-for-tat retaliation from China, potentially raising production costs, lowering market competitiveness, and resulting in significant job losses globally.

Beyond economic measures, Trump has also proposed expanding the US military presence in the Indo-Pacific to counter China’s military ambitions. This could provoke military tensions with Beijing, threatening peace and stability in the region.

Studies from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and the Peterson Institute for International Economics show that Trump’s tariffs disproportionately affected US and Chinese consumers, with billions lost on both sides.

While the Biden administration has taken a firm stance on human rights, adding Chinese companies to the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act Entity List, it has not reignited the full-scale trade war seen under Trump, helping to stabilise US-China relations.

If Trump returns to the White House, his administration may adopt a protectionist and unilateralist stance, which could disrupt global trade and further isolate the US from international cooperation.

As Americans cast their ballots, they hold the potential to shape not only their national direction but also the future of global economic and political stability.

In addition to US-China relations, a Trump administration might also impact other geopolitical tensions. His alignment with Russia could lessen US support for Ukraine, while, in the Middle East, his potential approach could intensify conflicts in Israel, Gaza, Iran, and Lebanon, potentially destabilising oil markets and causing broader economic consequences.

— The writer is a journalist and communication consultant.