Seven months to the General Election, no other race has attracted as many opponents as the gubernatorial post in Taita Taveta county.

Candidates are declaring their interest to ‘unseat’ the ‘sitting’ governor. They have one thing in common; they harbor false hopes.

Good luck with that.

Their greatest miscalculation is underrating Mshapa. Most of them take him for a pushover; an easy prey. They will live to regret this as we approach the elections.

This son of Werugha is lethal.

Long ago, Mshapa might have been green. Not anymore. He has evolved into an incredibly smart force. He is a political sniper, he knows where to hit and when. He never misses his target.

You underrate Mshapa at your own peril. He calculates. He knows the figures that add up and those that don’t. He has mastered addition and subtraction very well such that even those who are so dear and close to him MUST demonstrate loyalty otherwise, replacement is within his fingertips and doesn’t give room for blackmail. You cannot earn a place in Mshapa’s heart through the backdoor. Those who have tried in the past have learned their lessons. Once you leave his team, you’ll be replaced almost immediately even before you go public regardless of the position you hold…those who served in his Cabinet earlier can attest to this.

A grand master, he sees the complete political chessboard. He speaks less and acts more. Insiders confirm Mshapa has built an extensive intelligence-gathering network. He gets the information he needs; when he needs it. These are powers of incumbency.

It is meaningless to seek power if power cannot be felt in you as a leader. A leader should be firm and authoritative. He or she MUST be ready to stand firm and make hard decision regardless of the repercussions. That is Mshapa for you and that’s where the first governor failed. He was a fence sitter and allowed himself to be taken left, right centre. He couldn’t stand firm and deal with MCAs on critical matters for the benefit of datuzen….akipigiwa miguu chini, anapeana favours at the expense of the to datuzen.

As it is, most of his competitors have discovered too late they are up against a mountain; unmovable; deep-rooted and solid.

Most are on the verge of despair. Faced with no financial muscle to sustain a long-drawn brutal campaign, they must consider quitting with other seeking to deputise him. They can barely convene a meeting of a handful people and have resulted to shamelessly hijacking funerals to address mourners.
The little money at their disposal become useful to fund cheap bloggers to insult and name-call. Unfortunately, they lack substantive agenda and all their allegations are baseless. They should be terrified.
Mshapa is just warming up. His campaign machinery is not yet started.

The rivals’ biggest support lies in online talk. A glance at the platforms dismisses any notion of support. Nothing but voices of despair.

There are around 20 active WhatsApp groups in the county. They all have similar members. An audit shows out of 255 members, only 15 keep the group busy. The 15 are the same ones who have been on the same thing over and over again since 2016. They copy and paste debates from one WhatsApp group to the other and that has become their daily routine. They spend 18 hours daily on WhatsApp and engaging such idle people may be disastrous.

All other members are silent. Disinterested in the meaningless topics.

Mshapa is neither on WhatsApp nor on Facebook.  He is not alone. Out of 160,000 voters in the county, nearly 70 per cent (112,000) are not on social media. Only 30 per cent (48,000) own a smart phone. Of those with smartphones, 60 per cent are never active on social media. This is not speculation. It is solid data.

Try convening a village baraza. Ask how many people access social media. You will discover why majority of those using social media to woo voters are doomed in elections.
Mshapa is a student of Moi’s grassroots politics; an art he has perfected. He is dealing directly with this 70 per cent in the villages.

A voter in Mwatate CBD has a different view from one in Kamtonga, Kiziki, Kambi raa Punda. One in Kaloleni has different view from the one in Buguta, Ndii, Mbolo, Ndome, Wongonyi, Mghange, Mghambonyi, Mbale, Misharinyi or Marungu.

The dynamics of regional politics are at play. Mshapa is moving the pieces. Truth becomes simple.
The true voters living in villages speak their truth. There is a road here; a borehole there. There is a needy student sponsored here; an ECD class there.

While detractors branded Nyangoro water project a white elephant and alleged water was ferried by bowsers, true beneficiaries have the true story. They are deeply grateful.

What else shows divide between social media universe and what is on the ground?

None of the competitors has penetrated the villages. They are strangers to voters they want to woo.
Mshapa is different. He has met thousands. In meetings and while launching projects though this is nothing new. He has been meeting his people way before he became a governor. He listened to them. And acted. This is people’s man.

He has been meeting delegations from across the county, the latest one was from Taveta. This is dealing with Tavetas directly; having conversation with the voter. That is typical Mshapa in his element.
What he is doing now is merely ‘ice-breaking’. When he officially kicks off his campaign, it will be a hurricane.

Watu wazoe Gavana wao.

Nishazoea.