The world is facing perilous times. The Russia-Ukraine war does not appear to have an end in sight. Then, this one: Hamas vs Israel. The Middle East has always been unsettled ground. But never at these levels of hostility. Hamas waded into Israel and left death in its wake. The reports are chilling.

Youngsters were killed at a party. They stopped dancing to the sound of bullets and slaughter. Families were raided in their homes, and children were killed in their baby cots. Pictures of blood-stained floors appeared across television screens.

Then Israel responded. And what a response it has been! The end is yet to be as the battle unfolds. As is to be expected, the United States supports Israel. America, as a superpower, can’t be neutral in any conflict. In the Russia-Ukraine war, the leader of the free world has been propping up Ukraine.

The bipolar world of old was divided into two powerful sides, both nuclear-armed and facing each other, deterred by the fear of mutual destruction. Then, the fortunes of Russia started dwindling, leaving the United States as a solo superpower.

Global politics is complicated. China and Russia were joined by Brazil, India, and South Africa to form BRICS. Their number is set to swell in January. BRICS has all the indicators of an emerging global centre of influence. Their conferences now draw the world’s attention, with many waiting to hear their decisions.

They have a development bank that could soon rival the traditional Bretton Wood institutions of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank but without the cultural encumbrances associated with the two.

While members of BRICS are equal partners, there is one country to watch: China and its leader, Xi Jinping. In the last meeting in Johannesburg, the gazing game was on the Chinese leader, his body language, the functions he attended and the ones he gave a wide berth. His presence signified the importance of an event.

Leadership eschews a vacuum. The power of the US is not going anywhere soon. But straddled across two conflicts, the weight of the challenge is sufficient to keep a global player distracted. With no clarity as to when the Ukraine vs Russia war will end, the US has no option but to keep tabs on what is happening there.

But it will be equally suicidal for any American leader to lose sight of the happenings in Israel. While it is still too early to tell what direction this war will take, any expansion that brings onboard Hezbollah from neighbouring Lebanon could easily suck in other Arab states, most likely starting with Iran. Then, there will be no telling the direction that the war takes.

The United States might still be saddled with other domestic considerations. Next year will be an election year. There are already challenges in the lead-up to elections. Politically, there is a civil war in the Republican Party. The centre-right of the party, led by a Florida legislator, only recently succeeded, with a mere eight other like-minded individuals, to vote out the speaker of the house. For now, the house cannot transact normal business.

China could offer a steady hand in the vacuum that may arise. Beijing’s steady political leadership is a calming alternative to the chaos characteristic of vaunted democracies. Staying out of any conflict, all in keeping with the Chinese dogma of non-interference in other countries’ affairs, would afford Beijing the level-headedness to provide leadership and neutrality required in the emerging conflict-ridden world.
Not only that.

More and more people in the world are growing to like China. For example, in a recent study, about 70 per cent of Kenyans viewed China positively. Kenyans are not alone in this. China’s hand in infrastructure development across the global south and its aid to these administrations have endeared it as a reliable partner in development. It would not be too hard for China to emerge as a global leader where the previous superpowers were distracted by wars in their spheres of influence.

— The writer is Dean, School of Communication, Daystar University