With 25 months until the 2027 General Election, discussions of forming a grand coalition to unseat President William Ruto are gathering momentum behind the scenes.

At least seven key political heavyweights are quietly laying the groundwork for their own presidential bids. 

However, as Kenya approaches what could be the country’s most pivotal political battle, the opposition faces a herculean task: rallying behind one candidate for a common goal. At the heart of this conundrum lies an overcrowded field of presidential hopefuls within the opposition ranks. 

Emerging powerhouses 

From seasoned players like Kalonzo Musyoka, Martha Karua, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, and Eugene Wamalwa, to emerging powerhouses like George Natembeya and a resurgent Fred Matiang’i, the race to claim the opposition mantle already threatens to tear apart any hopes of a unified front.

Former Cabinet minister Justin Muturi, who recently returned to helm the Democratic Party, also has a score to settle with Ruto in the 2027 ballot. 

Each candidate is positioning themselves for the top seat, brandishing regional backing and personal political capital. The prospect of consensus around a single flagbearer appears increasingly remote. 

In a recent TV interview, Matiang’i confirmed his 2027 presidential bid, stating he is “working with colleagues in the opposition internally and having conversations with other leaders in the country.” 

“I am also engaging with Kenyans from all walks of life on the future of our country with the intention of seeing what we can do to fix some of the challenges we are facing,” Matiang’i explained.

“Kenya does not need an all-knowing saviour or ruler. The country needs a hardworking, honest consensus builder or leader to mobilise the country and create a level of trust in the people of Kenya.” 

Patterns of division 

While the opposition caravan – led by Kalonzo and Gachagua during recent Coast rallies – has pledged to field a single presidential candidate and deploy agents across all polling stations to counter electoral malpractice, history paints a different picture.

Kenya’s political landscape is riddled with examples of failed unity pacts, personal rivalries, and behind-the-scenes betrayals that derail efforts to consolidate opposition forces. 

One notable example is the aborted 2013 deal between then-deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi and President Uhuru Kenyatta.

Mudavadi revealed in 2019 that Uhuru and William Ruto approached him with a proposal to back his presidential bid under the United Democratic Front.

The deal was formalised in a one-page agreement signed at night, but days later, Uhuru reneged, claiming he was coerced by “dark forces.” 

Similar tensions played out before the 2022 election. The opposition’s journey to identify a single flagbearer proved chaotic. Kalonzo, then-ANC boss Musalia Mudavadi, Moses Wetang’ula of Ford Kenya, and Kanu’s Gideon Moi – under the One Kenya Alliance (OKA) – held several meetings exploring their options as Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta edged closer to a Jubilee-ODM alliance. 

Ruto capitalised on the disarray, often ridiculing OKA for “lacking both a candidate and an agenda”. With uncertainty mounting, Uhuru eventually summoned opposition leaders to State House in Mombasa, reportedly urging them to rally behind Raila.

The OKA principals later denied any pressure to back Odinga, insisting all aspirants had an equal chance. 

At a Mombasa press briefing, Kalonzo subtly hinted at a broader alliance, saying, “Ukiona vielele, jua vimeundwa” (If you see vessels afloat, know they’ve been built).

Meanwhile, Kilifi Governor Amason Kingi, who had registered Pamoja African Alliance behind closed doors, made a surprise appearance, fuelling speculation of his impending entry into OKA. 

Then came Mudavadi’s dramatic “earthquake” moment in January 2022, when he aligned with William Ruto.

He later revealed the final straw was pressure from President Uhuru for OKA to back Raila, a proposal he felt was forced. 

Today, Mudavadi, Wetang’ula, and Kingi are reaping rewards from their gamble, holding senior positions in Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza government. Moi, however, remains politically sidelined. 

Biggest huddle 

According to Dr Richard Bosire, a political science lecturer at the University of Nairobi, the biggest hurdle for the opposition is unity, not the race itself. 

“The 1992 and 1997 elections taught us that a fragmented opposition hands victory to the incumbent,” Bosire notes.

“Even when opposition candidates cumulatively had over 50 per cent of the vote, President Moi still won due to the simple majority rule.” 

While Kenya has adopted a new constitutional order, the challenge remains. Bosire argues that for a coalition to succeed, it needs strong, structured parties with clear mandates.

Without this foundation, any agreement is built on shaky ground. 

Negotiating power 

He cites Rigathi Gachagua’s case, who found himself politically vulnerable when removed from the presidency due to lacking a personal party.

“Without a party, you lose negotiating power and risk being sidelined after elections,” he said. 

Bosire also laments the prevalence of political dishonesty.

“In Kenya, a politician can flip-flop without consequence. Chapter Six of the Constitution outlines ethical standards, but they are rarely enforced.” 

The university don emphasises the importance of formal coalition agreements.

“Memorandums of Understanding deposited with the Registrar of Political Parties should be legally binding. If one party exits, they should forfeit their place. But enforcement remains weak, as seen with ODM’s continued engagement with UDA.”