Tana River Senator Danson Mungatana has predicted that the embattled Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Secretary General Edwin Sifuna’s growing challenge to the outfit’s leadership is unlikely to gain traction.

In an interview on a local TV station on Wednesday, February 18, 2026, the legislator drew on his decades of political experience, reflecting on past movements that faltered due to poor organisation.

“My own prediction is that unless they have structure, unless they have proper financing, and they have thought long term, this rebellion within ODM will fizzle out, and they will find their way in, and they will be accommodated,” Mungatana said.

Drawing on decades of political experience, the veteran lawmaker said the party’s internal dissent mirrors past movements that faltered due to poor organisation.

“At that time, the government of my Kibaki was under heavy attack by Raila Odinga, but we felt that there were some justifications, so that we could come to the country, let us have this third force. We hosted a few rallies, but then, because we didn’t have structure and we did not have financing, and we did not have a vehicle, over time, the movement dissipated, and we had to go back to where we belonged,” Mungatana recalled.

The senator emphasised that politics is fundamentally about negotiation and accommodation.

“Politics is about accommodation and taking different opinions and putting people together even when you don’t agree. If they do not think long term, they would probably come back and negotiate for positions within the larger formation,” he said.

The warning comes amid a bitter struggle between Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi tour and party leader Oburu Oginga’s Linda Ground initiative.

The factions reflect deep divisions in ODM in post- Raila Odinga’s era, as Sifuna-led firebrands push for presidential ambitions, while allies of President William Ruto are negotiating a 50/50 stake in the ODM-UDA coalition framework ahead of the 2027 elections.

Sifuna’s supporters include Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka, Vihiga’s Godfrey Osotsi, Nyamira’s Erick Okong’o Mogeni, and National Assembly members Babu Owino (Embakasi East), Caleb Amisi (Saboti), Wanami Wamboka (Bumula), Patrick Makau (Mavoko), Joshua Kimilu (Kaiti), and Majimbo Kalasinga (Kabuchai).

Other notable figures expected to attend rallies include Wilberforce Oundo, Raphael Wanjala, Caroli Omondi, Obadiah Barongo, Clive Gisairo, and Antoney Kibagendi. The group has organised forums in Kakamega, Busia, Kisii, Nyamira, and Kitengela to consolidate grassroots influence ahead of 2027.

On the other side, the Linda Ground initiative, led by Oburu and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, was launched in January 2026 at Kamukunji Grounds in Kibra.

The initiative seeks to gauge delegates’ opinions on whether ODM should enter pre-coalition talks with the ruling UDA, offering a more conservative and negotiation-focused approach.

The intra-party battles escalated on February 11, 2026, when ODM’s National Executive Committee (NEC) relieved Sifuna of his duties as Secretary General, appointing Deputy Secretary General Catherine Omanyo as acting head.

The move followed months of internal tension, particularly criticism over ODM’s cooperation with the government.

However, Sifuna secured a reprieve when the Political Parties Disputes Tribunal (PPDT) stayed the NEC resolution and barred its publication in the Kenya Gazette, temporarily protecting his position until the dispute is fully heard.

Mungatana’s insights suggest that Sifuna’s faction faces an uphill battle. Without structured organisation, stable financing, and a clear long-term plan, the rebellion may collapse, eventually pushing the party’s dissenters back to negotiation and accommodation, the enduring hallmark of ODM politics.