Ruto-Raila pact reshapes 2027 race dynamics
By Reuben Mwambingu, July 22, 2025Since President William Ruto (UDA/Kenya Kwanza) and ODM leader Raila Odinga entered into a political pact to form a broad-based government on March 7, 2025, the country’s political landscape has undergone a dramatic transformation.
This shift has been marked by rising political temperatures and unprecedented realignments across traditional party divides.
The pact, which Raila described as being forged “in the interest of the country”, has blurred the conventional lines between government and opposition.
This development has triggered a frantic scramble among other Azimio-affiliated parties—including Wiper, DAP-K, and Jubilee—to fill the vacuum left by ODM’s embrace of government.
Aggressive campaigns
Opposition heavyweights have wasted no time in repositioning themselves for 2027. Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, former Cabinet Secretaries Fred Matiang’i, Eugene Wamalwa, and Mithika Linturi, along with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, have launched aggressive campaigns across the country.
Gachagua, who has openly admitted to regretting his support for President Ruto in 2022, now presents himself as a politically mature figure keen to steer the opposition into a new era.
However, whether he can convert this transformation into meaningful political capital remains uncertain.
President Ruto has not remained idle amid these developments. With ODM now part of his government, Ruto appears determined to transform Raila’s traditional strongholds into his own political territory.
His recent flurry of development-oriented visits to Luo Nyanza—Raila’s political bedrock—bears a striking resemblance to the charm offensive that delivered him Mount Kenya in 2022.
From infrastructure rollouts to MSME support programs, the President has announced a string of development pledges across Kisumu, Siaya, Migori, and Homa Bay.
These initiatives have won applause from local leaders and are gradually warming up a region long considered impenetrable by the ruling regime.
Regional shift
Among those now openly supporting Ruto in Luo Nyanza is National Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, a longtime ODM insider.
“Luos are loyal. When treated with respect, they reciprocate,” Mbadi stated.
“The fact that people spent the night at Raila Odinga Stadium demonstrates their love for both Raila and Ruto. I can say authoritatively that Luo votes are secured for Ruto in 2027.”
Mbadi’s optimism reflects a notable transformation in the region, where Raila’s longstanding anti-government stance is giving way to cooperation.
During Ruto’s recent tour of Homa Bay, Raila himself urged residents to support the government, arguing that the region stands to benefit from development projects under the new political dispensation.
“You’ve seen what the government is doing. Let us support Ruto to deliver,” Raila told the crowd—though some of his close allies remain sceptical of this approach.
Key figures like Siaya Governor James Orengo and ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna had earlier cautioned against ODM’s full embrace of the Ruto regime, citing potential long-term political costs.
However, recent pronouncements from key party leaders suggest a coordinated shift in strategy.
Cabinet Secretaries Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives), Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), and Siaya Senator Dr. Oburu Oginga have all affirmed their commitment to the broad-based government and voiced support for Ruto’s 2027 re-election bid.
They cite tangible development gains and improved political inclusion as key motivating factors.
Homa Bay Governor and ODM Chairperson Gladys Wanga echoed similar sentiments during the President’s tour: “We are in government, and without sending mixed signals, we will work with you to the very end. We owe you a debt of gratitude.”
Interior Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo has urged the Luo community to move beyond opposition politics and support the current administration to maximise development benefits.
Resource deployment
UDA is taking no chances in this political realignment. Armed with Ksh480 million from the Political Parties Fund—significantly more than ODM’s Ksh256 million—the party is deploying substantial resources to expand its footprint in former opposition strongholds.
As UDA probes ODM’s traditional base, other Azimio-affiliated parties are re-strategising, eager to fill the emerging ideological and territorial gaps.
The challenge for ODM, according to political analysts, lies in striking a delicate balance between national cooperation and grassroots loyalty.
For now, Raila continues to keep the country guessing about his 2027 intentions.
In a recent television interview, he declined to confirm whether he will seek the presidency, stating that the broad-based government agreement is only valid until 2027 with no guarantee of continuity thereafter.
“I’ve not made a decision. I’m focusing on strengthening ODM. If the party wants me to run, they’ll say it. If they want someone else, that’s their decision,” Raila explained.
While numerous ODM leaders have already declared support for Ruto’s re-election, Raila was quick to dismiss such endorsements as “personal opinions” that do not reflect the party’s official position.
Joho’s Coast comeback
Meanwhile, reports have emerged that Ruto is quietly assembling a grassroots mobilisation team to solidify his 2027 bid.
A key player in this strategy is Mining and Blue Economy Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho, a former ODM deputy leader and once-dominant Coast political figure.
Joho has staged a remarkable comeback since joining the Cabinet and is now viewed as Ruto’s main point person at the Coast.
His elevated stature became apparent in May when he led a delegation of Coast leaders to State House, pledging unwavering loyalty to the President.
“We are united by issues, not factions,” Joho told the President. “We will execute the duties you’ve entrusted to us so we can all prosper.” He added emphatically: “Na kama ni noma, noma; kama ni mbaya, mbaya.” (If it gets tough, so be it—we’re all in.)