With less than two years to the next General Election, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is facing a crisis of confidence.

A new survey by TIFA released on Wednesday, September 24, 2025, shows that only 18 per cent of Kenyans now say they are “very confident” in the commission, a sharp decline from 58 per cent recorded in August 2022.

The poll paints a troubling picture for the institution tasked with managing Kenya’s most consequential democratic exercise. According to the findings, 26 per cent of Kenyans are only “somewhat confident” in the commission, while nearly half, 48 per cent, say they are not confident at all. Another 8 per cent remain undecided.

The downward trend in trust has been consistent since the last election. In May 2025, confidence had already dropped to 20 per cent, and it has now slid further to 18 per cent in September.

At the same time, Kenyans expressing complete distrust in the IEBC surged from just 10 per cent in August 2022 to 50 per cent in May 2025, before slightly easing to 48 per cent this month.

TIFA, in its statement, warned that the figures send a clear warning signal: “With less than 1 in 5 Kenyans strongly trusting IEBC, the institution faces a legitimacy test. High distrust levels could fuel scepticism about the fairness, transparency, and credibility of the 2027 elections. Declining public confidence highlights the urgent need to restore trust in the electoral body.”

The numbers underscore a crisis that could undermine preparations for the 2027 polls. Analysts have repeatedly warned that electoral bodies thrive on public confidence, and any doubts about neutrality or efficiency could breed political instability and voter apathy.

For Kenya, where elections have historically been hotly contested and sometimes violent, trust in the electoral body is more than a statistic; it is a barometer of democratic stability. The findings suggest that unless urgent reforms are undertaken, the IEBC may face an uphill task convincing Kenyans that their votes will truly count.

As the countdown to 2027 begins, the pressure is now on the electoral body and political leaders to take decisive steps in rebuilding faith. Without that, the next election risks being overshadowed by mistrust long before ballots are cast.