Fred Ogola: Raila’s relevance towards 2027 will diminish
By Luke Oluoch, September 24, 2025Political commentator Fred Ogola has predicted a major shift in Kenya’s political landscape that will significantly impact the Orange Democratic Movement leader, Raila Odinga’s influence.
Speaking on a local TV on Wednesday, September 24, 2025, Ogola stated that a political shift from political mobilisation to an economic one and the end of the culture of political kinship are key to the major shift.
“The culture of kinship is dying; therefore, Raila’s relevance towards 2027 will diminish. As a country, we are also moving away from tribal politics and mobilisation since the Kenyan problem is now economic. We are going to have an economic mobilisation rather than a political one,” he stated.
He observed that the youth of Kenya are now more concerned about issues related to human rights and their very survival.
“We now have a different generation that is now thinking about human rights, the rule of law, and issues along those lines,” he stated.
His remarks contrast with those of former Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu, who hailed the ODM leader for perfecting the art of political negotiations and successfully keeping his people benefiting from the government.
Speaking during a live TV interview on Wednesday, September 24, 2025, the former legislator wondered how Raila has been able to put his negotiating acumen to use.
Raila’s negotiating acumen
“We keep talking about Raila’s failure in ascending to the presidency, but he has succeeded in ensuring people who support him consistently benefit from their support,” he maintained.
“For any one person to be able to stay relevant with four presidents, it means you have to give it to him. He knows his game,” he added.
Wambugu referenced how Raila, having successfully negotiated with four past presidents, has also facilitated ODM members’ entrance into William Ruto’s administration under the broad-based government.
“Today he can comfortably claim he is not in government, but he has managed to put senior members of his party in government and has the regions that supported him in government and its people affecting development in their regions,” he added.
He also asserted that Raila made a strategic political move by maintaining a non-committal stance on his party’s position for the 2027 elections.
According to Wambugu, the remarks on whether or not the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) would field a presidential candidate were meant to ensure Raila and his party remain relevant inside the broad-based arrangement.