The political truce between President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga – commonly referred to as the broad-based government – was never meant to be a bed of roses. Like most uneasy alliances, this one has been quietly rocked by internal discord.

Before the alliance was cemented, Raila had publicly criticised Ruto’s administration, accusing it of systemic failures that had derailed progress during Ruto’s first two and half years in office. The ODM leader issued a set of demands he described as “bare minimums” for continued cooperation – demands that, nearly a year later, remain largely unmet.

As part of a series of countrywide “consultation visits” following his unsuccessful bid for the African Union Commission chairmanship, Raila used public platforms to voice his grievances. From Nyanza to Western and the Coast, his message was consistent: demanding solutions to a “nation in distress”.

“Our country is facing serious problems,” Raila told journalists in Mombasa. “Skyrocketing cost of living, unemployment, a deteriorating education system, and a collapsing health sector – these are issues the government has yet to address.”

He also cited entrenched tribalism in public sector employment and demanded equitable distribution of national resources. “We all pay taxes. Every Kenyan deserves a fair chance. Discrimination must end,” he said. Raila further condemned the government’s inaction on corruption.

Raila accused the national government of deliberately undermining county governments by delaying or withholding funds, particularly those intended for health services. “We were promised universal health coverage, yet many can’t access even the most basic healthcare. The Social Health Authority has failed. The government must fund devolution as the Constitution mandates,” he said.

Perhaps most damning were Raila’s remarks on alleged extrajudicial killings and abductions—particularly following last year’s Gen Z protests. He called for justice and compensation for victims and families affected by state violence. “We cannot remain silent while our youth are abducted, harassed, and killed. This must stop.”

Little progress

Nearly a year into this alliance – which saw ODM “technocrats” absorbed into Ruto’s administration – there is little to show in terms of Raila’s publicly stated conditions. If anything, cases of police brutality have worsened.

The killing of 31-year-old teacher Albert Ojwang in police custody after being arrested over a social media post critical of Deputy Inspector General Eliud Lagat has sparked nationwide outrage. The teacher’s death ignited fresh protests, including in Nairobi, where a hawker was shot at point-blank range by police and remains hospitalised.

Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, ODM’s national chairperson, led the charge in condemning these incidents. “These atrocities must end. We demand accountability and prosecution of all officers involved, including those in command,” said Wanga. She stressed that extrajudicial killings are incompatible with the spirit of the ODM-UDA cooperation.

Born of desperation

However, political analysts argue that the Ruto-Raila union was never about national interest but personal political survival.

Fred Ogweno, executive director of the Inter-Regional Peace Network, believes the alliance was forged out of mutual political desperation. “It wasn’t about love for each other. It was about survival,” he said. “Raila and Ruto found themselves backed into a corner – Raila by Gen Z protests, and Ruto by political instability. So they came together.”

But Ogweno warns the alliance rests on shaky ground. “The government is implementing the very things ODM historically opposed. That makes this marriage fragile,” he observed. “Raila must weigh his options. Leaving the government now may be risky, especially with Rigathi Gachagua sidelined. But staying binds him to policies he once denounced.”

He added that the government is “hanging by a thread”. Without Raila, Ruto’s administration could unravel. “Raila is Ruto’s insurance policy. If Raila loses his grassroots support due to association with the government’s misdeeds, both could fall,” he warned.

Avoiding confrontation

According to Ogweno, Raila is walking a tightrope – quietly pressing for reforms behind the scenes while avoiding direct confrontation to preserve the fragile coalition.

“Raila is the people, and the people are Raila,” Ogweno said. “He’s watching public sentiment closely. If it turns against Ruto, he’ll jump ship. The agreement runs to 2027. Beyond that, nothing is guaranteed.”

He believes that Raila’s leverage increases with every misstep by Ruto’s team. “The more mistakes Ruto makes, the more Raila gains – more appointments, more influence. Ruto is unknowingly strengthening Raila’s hand.”

However, Ogweno warns that President Ruto must be very careful not to make too many mistakes that could expose his position. He argues that Ruto was better off when Raila was in opposition because he could easily bring him in to calm any storm. Now that they are together, if a bigger storm comes, both could be swept away.

Criticism from opposition

Kennedy Ondiek, national chair of Progress Plus Alliance, is scathing in his assessment. He accuses Raila of prioritizing personal gain over public interest.

“Raila never demanded anything for the people. He asked for positions and got them. If he truly wanted the abductions to stop, they would have,” Ondiek argued.

He claims Raila’s involvement in the gas industry is one reason he opposed efforts to reduce prices. “He profits when fuel costs are high. That’s the truth,” said Ondiek.

He also questioned the constitutionality of the so-called broad-based government. “There’s no legal framework for it. We’re governed by individuals, not institutions. The so-called experts are failing,” he added.

For Ondiek, the solution lies not in political coalitions but in implementing the Constitution. “Kenyans want security, healthcare, education, and jobs  – not affordable housing gimmicks or robotic chapati makers,” he said.