Arap Kirwa warns ODM against Ruto deals ahead of 2027 Polls
By Kenneth Mwenda, February 18, 2026Kipruto Arap Kirwa has warned the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) that it risks heavy losses in the 2027 General Election if it pursues political deals with President William Ruto.
Speaking on a radio station on Wednesday, February 18, 2026, the former Agriculture Minister said ODM could find itself weakened and divided if it aligns itself too closely with Ruto’s camp.
Kirwa, who once served as deputy chairman of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) before defecting in 2022, said recent remarks by the ODM Party leader have created confusion about ODM’s place in future political arrangements.
“The deputy president. At times he says yeah, Kindiki is safe. Then at times he says he wants to negotiate with any other formation.” Kirwa said, referring to Oburu’s comments about Deputy President Kithure Kindiki.
“So my worry is that ODM may find itself in a very awkward position right in this election,” he stated.
Kirwa predicted that ODM’s parliamentary strength could shrink sharply if the party continues on what he sees as the wrong path.
“If ODM the way you will perceive it in the form that it is with the symbol that it has goes in the way it is going, they’ll be struggling to get 40 members of Parliament down from 80 something that they have today,” he warned.
ODM currently holds a lot of seats in the National Assembly. It remains strong in Luo Nyanza and parts of the Coast and Western regions. However, defections to UDA have increased since the death of party leader Raila Odinga in October 2025.
Odinga’s passing at the age of 80 left ODM without a clear successor. Senior figures within the party have since competed for influence, and questions remain about who will carry the party’s presidential flag in 2027.
Kirwa said political competition has already intensified in South Nyanza, long regarded as an ODM stronghold.
“Because some of them will go to UDA already in South Nyanza. They have created a parallel team or people who are not ODM. There is already competition between ODM and UDA. This is in South Nyanza,” he said.
Deepening rift within ODM
The party faces deep internal divisions. Two main factions have emerged: one pushes for a strong coalition with UDA to secure key positions, while the other resists any deals that could dilute ODM’s identity. These fights have left the party unsettled and unable to present a united front.
ODM has strongly targeted the deputy presidency in any coalition with UDA, with Oburu Odinga and Gladys Wanga insisting the party will not remain in opposition after 20 years.
“That deputy president seat is what we are targeting very strongly,” they declared.
UDA allies, however, have firmly rejected the demand. Geoffrey Ruku stated Kindiki will stay DP until 2032.
“Mimi ndio deputy president wa Kenya. Na hii kiti hakuna mahali kinaenda,” Deputy President Kithure Kindiki stated while in Meru.
Kirwa accused Ruto of interfering in ODM’s internal affairs. In an earlier interview last year, Kirwa urged the president to stay out of the party’s succession battles.
“President William Ruto has never lost an election. And he panics at the thought of losing,” Kirwa said, describing Ruto as a leader who plans carefully and protects his political interests.
Kirwa had earlier questioned the president’s track record in forming political pacts.
“Which deal has William Ruto structured with somebody to the benefit of the other person? Any deal that you enter with him you will come out whether bitten totally whitewashed,” he said.
The remark is like a reflection of Kirwa’s own experience. In 2022, he left UDA and joined Raila Odinga’s Azimio la Umoja coalition just weeks before the election. Ruto went on to win the presidency.
Kenya’s political landscape has shifted since that election. UDA, under the Kenya Kwanza coalition, has attracted defectors from several parties, including ODM. Kirwa suggested that Ruto aims to weaken ODM further by encouraging divisions within its base.
In the same February 18 interview, Kirwa credited former President Uhuru Kenyatta for Ruto’s rise.
“Without Uhuru getting to the presidency, Ruto would not have reached anywhere,” he said.