Two cooperation agreements between countries in the Horn of Africa and their allies have exponentially raised the prospect of an all-out war in the region.
In August 2024, Egypt signed a defence pact with Somalia. Egypt promised Somalia that it would stand by it, and offer it military assistance as necessary. It also pledged to provide boots on the ground to supplement the UN peacekeeping force in that country.
Three key dynamics are driving the region towards open conflict.
First is the simmering hostility between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which Addis Ababa has built on the Blue Nile, from which 85 per cent of the water that Egypt receives flows. Egypt has repeatedly warned Ethiopia to desist, but the latter insists that it has an equal right to the Nile waters. This issue remains unresolved, and high tensions keep the possibility of open conflict high.
The second is the deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which has agreed to lease 19km of its Gulf of Aden coastline to Addis in the proximity of the port of Berbera. Further, Somaliland will also allow Ethiopia to utilise the land for a naval base, effectively enabling Ethiopia to build a navy. Somalia declared this an act of aggression and an assault on its sovereignty.
—Landlocked Ethiopia lost Asmara port when Eritrea became independent after a brutal civil war.
The third is that Somaliland declared independence over 30 years ago. Indeed, Somaliland is a prosperous and peaceful region in the sea of chaos that Somalia has been in for years. Somalia insists Somaliland is an integral part of Somalia, a position backed by the international community.
All these players are sucked into the regional geopolitics and hostilities at play here. Indeed, each of these initiatives seems aimed at gaining military vantage over rivals. The two agreements between the two rival alignments have created a very combustible mix. The Horn of Africa is now a time bomb awaiting the slightest trigger to go off.
Egypt wasted no time starting to move armaments into Somalia. Reuters reported that two planeloads of weapons and munitions had landed in Mogadishu. Any Egyptian troops in Somalia will bring them into the neighbourhood of Ethiopia. Ethiopia has warned that it stands ready to defend itself if attacked, a clear warning to Egypt and its design in the Horn. The leaders are spewing very belligerent and harsh rhetoric.
The region is already one big war field. Sudan is in its death throes, being dismantled by two generals who are fighting a brutal civil war after disagreeing over power sharing.
Ethiopia has just ended a civil war in its Tigray province. The region remains tense. South Sudan continues with its very tenuous peace, after a deal between its two top leaders ended a vicious civil war triggered by a power struggle between those two very leaders.
The leaders of these countries in the Horn have demonstrated a penchant for using war as their default response to political problems. Any outbreak will be a war like no other, drawing in at least five countries. It must be remembered that Somaliland has given DP World a 30-year concession to operate the Berbera port. DP World is owned by the UAE. It is unlikely that UAE will just sit idly by as Somaliland is attacked.
The African Union (AU) remains AWOL, as always, waiting to start issuing ineffectual statements when conflagration breaks out.
Turkey has shown the way and is mediating the tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia to resolve their stand-off. The AU must take the cue. It needs to bring all these players to the table to discuss a win-win solution that takes care of all interests, and guarantees all the countries involved peace and security.
Otherwise, it will soon be back to issuing ineffectual statements as a spectator. This is what it is doing now in Sudan, after failing to effectively guide that country to a post-military democratic dispensation when the opportunity still existed.
