Negotiations on the dominant climate finance issue at the United Nations Climate Conference (COP29) enter the crucial stage as teams seek to raise up to $1 trillion in climate finance for the world’s most vulnerable nations.

Dark clouds have already cast an eerie shadow over the conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, with political tensions fuelled by caustic remarks from the host President Ilham Aliyev directed at Western countries and the media erupting into a major public spat.

As President Donald Trump’s election throws the role of the United States in climate talks into doubt, the tension between developed and developing nations are bubbling in the plenary and in the negotiating rooms.

Trump’s victory in the US election has seen experts call on governments to curb climate disinformation amid scrutiny of the role X and its owner Elon Musk played in his victory.

The success of the climate summit hinges on whether countries can agree on a new finance target for richer countries, development lenders and the private sector to deliver each year.

Developing countries need at least $1 trillion annually by 2030 to cope with climate change. Many countries have said the money is essential to their setting ambitious climate goals ahead of COP30 in Brazil.

However, climate finance appears to overshadow other issues, with protesters sending out a clear “Pay Up” message. Climate justice activists are championing vulnerable nations’ demand for “trillions, not billions” in climate finance.

It is indeed the only recourse to a more just world away from one where developing countries, especially small island nations face an existential threat from a warming planet. UN Secretary-General António Guterres agrees they deserve support to deal with a crisis that they have done next to nothing to create.

Their anger is that they are on the sharp end of a colossal injustice that sees the very future of their islands threatened by rising seas, people pounded by record hurricanes and economies torn apart. An injustice perpetrated by the few.

This injustice must end and the victims receive adequate compensation through the climate finance negotiations since G20 countries account for around 80 percent of global emissions.

Though there is a glimmer of optimism, reaching a deal in Baku remains a tough call after the mood was soured by public disagreements and pessimism about shifts in global politics.

COP29 lead negotiator Yalchin Rafiyev told journalists that parties must be reminded that the clock is ticking. The previous annual finance goal of $100 billion expires this year. But wealthy countries only met the pledge in full starting in 2022.

The independent High-Level Group on Climate Finance says the target annual figure would need to rise to at least $1.35 trillion a year by 2035 if countries fail to act now. It is crunch time for climate finance at COP29 as negotiators seek a solution amid wide divergent views.

With many governments reluctant to pledge big sums and the likely withdrawal of the US from any future funding deals, pressure is mounting to find other sources for the needed funds.

Hopes remain, though, that multilateral development banks can be reformed to lend more. Ten of the largest plan to increase their climate finance by roughly 60 percent to $120 billion per year, with at least $65 billion from the private sector.

Still far too short of the target needs of vulnerable nations.

— The writer comments on climate news; [email protected]