Winners and losers after EPRA’s new fuel prices
By Francis Muli, July 17, 2026Millions of Kenyans have breathed a sigh of relief after the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) left fuel prices unchanged in its latest monthly review, shielding motorists, businesses and households from another round of increases.
The regulator announced that pump prices for super petrol, diesel and kerosene would remain unchanged for the pricing period, citing government intervention through the Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) and other stabilisation measures.
The decision comes at a time when businesses are grappling with rising operating costs, households continue to battle a high cost of living and manufacturers are warning that expensive energy is eroding Kenya’s competitiveness.
Some sectors stand to gain immediately, while others continue to shoulder heavy costs despite the government’s efforts.
Relief for motorists
Private motorists are among the biggest beneficiaries.
Fuel accounts for one of the largest monthly expenses for many Kenyan households, particularly those commuting daily between Nairobi and neighbouring counties.
An increase in fuel prices often translates directly into higher transport costs, reduced disposable income and increased spending across the economy.
By maintaining pump prices, EPRA has effectively prevented an additional financial burden on millions of motorists.
“This stability provides predictability for consumers and businesses,” economist Churchill Ogutu of IC Group says.
“When fuel prices remain stable, households are able to plan their budgets better.”
The relief is particularly significant because international crude oil prices have remained volatile in recent months due to geopolitical tensions and production decisions by major oil-producing countries.
Matatu operators avoid another fare hike
Public transport operators are another immediate winner.
Diesel powers the majority of Kenya’s public service vehicles, including matatus, buses and long-distance coaches.
Whenever diesel prices increase, operators almost always pass the additional costs to passengers through higher fares.
By keeping diesel prices unchanged, EPRA has reduced pressure on transport operators to increase fares.
This comes as commuters are already facing rising costs for food, rent and utilities.
Although some matatu operators have argued that current fuel prices remain high, stability means they can avoid immediate fare adjustments.
Manufacturers
Manufacturers, particularly those involved in heavy industry, are also among the beneficiaries.
Fuel is a critical input in production, transportation and distribution.
According to the Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM), energy remains one of the biggest cost drivers for local industries.
Stable fuel prices therefore help businesses plan production schedules and protect profit margins.
Manufacturers say predictability is often more valuable than sudden reductions because it allows firms to budget effectively.
Farmers
Kenya’s agricultural sector also stands to benefit.
Diesel powers tractors, irrigation pumps, harvesters and trucks transporting produce to markets.
Higher fuel prices typically increase the cost of food production before eventually pushing up retail prices.
Farmers are particularly sensitive to fuel costs during planting and harvesting seasons.
Stable prices mean transporters moving vegetables, milk, tea and cereals will avoid additional operating expenses in the short term.
Logistics firms
The logistics sector, which underpins Kenya’s economy, also benefits significantly.
Thousands of trucks move cargo daily between the Port of Mombasa, Nairobi and neighbouring countries.
Fuel accounts for one of the largest operating expenses for transport companies.
Stable diesel prices reduce uncertainty for logistics firms handling imports, exports and regional trade.
The savings may not immediately translate into lower freight charges, but they prevent further increases that would eventually affect consumers.
Airlines
Unlike road transport, airlines derive aviation fuel prices from a different pricing mechanism.
Although global oil prices influence aviation fuel costs, EPRA’s monthly review mainly affects petrol, diesel and kerosene sold locally.
Airlines therefore see limited direct benefit from the announcement.
Consumers
Despite avoiding another increase, ordinary Kenyans remain among the biggest losers.
Economists point out that stable prices are not the same as affordable prices.
Fuel prices remain significantly higher than they were a few years ago.
This means the cost of transporting food, manufactured goods and other essentials remains elevated.
Households continue to absorb these higher costs through more expensive goods and services.
“The issue is that prices have stabilised at a relatively high level,” economist Ken Gichinga says.
“Consumers are no longer facing monthly shocks, but the overall cost burden remains substantial.”
Oil marketers
Some oil marketers are also under pressure.
While stable prices benefit consumers, retailers operate within regulated margins set by EPRA.
When international oil prices fluctuate but domestic prices remain controlled, marketers may experience pressure on profitability depending on inventory costs and exchange rate movements.
The Petroleum Institute of East Africa has previously argued that pricing adjustments should adequately reflect industry costs to ensure sustainable supply.
Rural consumers
Consumers in remote counties remain another group that continues to bear higher costs.
Although EPRA regulates maximum pump prices nationally, transport costs mean motorists in distant towns often pay more than those in Nairobi or Mombasa.
The difference reflects the cost of transporting fuel from depots to retail stations.
As a result, residents in northern Kenya and other remote regions continue paying significantly more than urban consumers.
Balancing act
EPRA says the current pricing reflects efforts to protect consumers while ensuring the stability of fuel supply.
The government has increasingly relied on the Petroleum Development Levy to cushion consumers against global oil price volatility.
Without these interventions, analysts say pump prices would likely be significantly higher.
However, such measures also carry fiscal implications because they require government support that could otherwise be used elsewhere.
What lies ahead?
Much now depends on global crude oil markets.
Oil prices continue to be influenced by geopolitical developments in the Middle East, production decisions by OPEC+, global demand and exchange rate movements.
Should international crude prices rise sharply, maintaining current pump prices could become increasingly difficult without additional government intervention.
Conversely, a sustained decline in global oil prices could eventually create room for reductions at the pump.
For now, businesses, motorists and households can at least count on one thing, predictability.