China reports record trillion-dollar trade surplus despite Trump tariffs
By The Guardian, January 14, 2026China has reported a strong export run in 2025 with a record trillion-dollar surplus, as its producers brace for three more years of a Trump administration set on slowing the manufacturing powerhouse by shifting US orders to other markets.
Beijing’s resilience to renewed tariff tensions since Donald Trump returned to the US presidency last January has emboldened Chinese firms to shift their focus to Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America to offset US duties.
With Beijing looking to exports to counteract a prolonged property slump and sluggish domestic demand, the record surplus risks further unsettling economies concerned about China’s trade practices and overcapacity, as well as their own over-reliance on key Chinese products.
The full-year trade surplus came in at Ksh181.917 trillion, a figure on par with the GDP of a top-20 economy globally like Saudi Arabia – customs data showed, having broken the trillion-dollar ceiling for the first time in November.
“The momentum for global trade growth looks to be insufficient, and the external environment for China’s foreign trade development remains severe and complex,” Wang Jun, a vice-minister at China’s customs administration, said at a press briefing on Wednesday, January 14, 2026.
However, “with more diversified trading partners, [China’s] ability to withstand risks has been significantly enhanced, Wang said, adding that “the fundamentals for China’s foreign trade remain solid.
Outbound shipments from the world’s second-biggest economy grew 6.6 per cent in value terms year-on-year in December, compared with a 5.9 per cent increase in November. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 3.0 per cent increase.
Imports were up 5.7 per cent after a 1.9 per cent bump the month earlier and also beat a forecast for a 0.9 per cent uptick.
China’s currency held steady after the upbeat data, even as equity investors welcomed the forecast-beating numbers. The benchmark Shanghai Composite index and blue-chip CSI300 index both rose more than 1 per cent in morning deals.
The Chinese monthly export surpluses exceeded Ksh15 trillion seven times in 2025– partially underpinned by a weakened yuan – up from just once in 2024, underscoring that Trump’s actions have barely dented China’s trade with the wider world even if he has curbed US-bound shipments.
Economists expect China to continue gaining global market share this year, helped by Chinese firms setting up overseas production hubs that provide lower-tariff access to the US and EU, as well as by strong demand for lower-grade chips and other electronics.
China’s car-making industry saw overall exports jump 19.4 per cent to 5.79m vehicles last year, with pure EV shipments up 48.8 per cent. China would probably remain the world’s top auto exporter for a third year after first beating Japan in 2023.
Beijing, however, has shown signs of recognising it must moderate its industrial exports if it is to sustain its success, and the leadership has been increasingly cognisant and vocal about imbalances in China’s economy and the image problem its export volumes are causing.