Why poll is high stakes game for President, Ruto and Raila

Today’s election is a high-stakes game for three key players; President Uhuru Kenyatta his deputy William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

How the results turn out will significantly determine the destiny of each of these three leaders and by extension Kenya.

This year’s election pits Raila and Ruto for the State House race. Raila has been billed as a favourite with a narrow margin. However, pollsters and political analysts have been predicting that the first round could fail to produce an outright winner. If this happens, it will precipitate a re-run.

This is not to say Ruto stands no chance as voter turn-out in his perceived strongholds could make the presidential election a toss-up.

Other candidates in the presidential race are George Wajackoyah of Roots Party and David Mwaure of Agano Party. They have been billed as most likely to be a distant third and fourth respectively.

In previous elections, spoilt votes have been inordinately high, and this is one area to watch this year.  However, despite their number, they will not be counted when tallying totals to determine the winner. This year’s election is also unique given the fact that it is the first one to be held in an environment where a sitting president and his deputy do not see eye-to-eye.

 The President has been determined to manage his succession in favour of a candidate who challenged him in the last election.

On the other hand, for almost two years, Ruto has openly defied his boss, blaming him and Raila for all the socio-economic challenges the country has experienced. However, he has also been taking credit for the achievements made by the outgoing administration.

And the President has not taken Ruto’s defiance lying down although the law does not allow him to fire his deputy.

He has traversed various parts of the country imploring Kenyans not to vote for his deputy, whom he has described as dishonest and unreliable. He has also raised questions about his deputy’s integrity.

For the last two weeks, while the President traversed various parts of the country to campaign for his rival-turned-ally, Ruto also heightened his messaging to Kenyans, asking them to vote for him.

According to Prof Macharia Munene, a political analyst, the stakes are quite high for the three due to the implications the election results will have for each. “For President Uhuru, he has put out his head by supporting Raila. He is determined to manage his succession and a defeat for Raila will not augur well for him,” said Macharia.

Ruto’s allies say it is clear that in his second term, the President was not bound by the power-sharing agreement with his deputy as was the case in their first term.

Requisite clout

They, however, believe Ruto has the requisite clout to take over from President Uhuru.

“We expect a new dawn in the Mt Kenya region with the emergence of new leadership,” said Wahome. Wahome cites the pitfalls that met the Building Bridges Initiative, which sought to spearhead a constitutional referendum ahead of today’s polls as one the challenges that rocked the Uhuru-Ruto relationship.

Supreme Court frustrated the drive although as late as Sunday, the President defended it, saying it would have brought political equality to all regions.

On the other side of the political aisle, Raila is making what is widely seen as his best stab at the presidency given the support he enjoys from the incumbent. Still, the stakes are high for him.

“It is a Raila moment. This time, we had our mathematics correct and we expect nothing short of victory,” ODM chairman John Mbadi, said. “Kenyans will vote for Raila because of what he has done for them in his political career.”

“For Raila, it remains to be seen whether he would be fifth time lucky,” Munene adds.

The scholar also believes today’s election is likely to be the final contest by the Kenyatta and Odinga dynasties.

 The two families have dominated Kenyan politics for more than half a century.

President Uhuru’s father, Jomo Kenyatta, was Kenya’s first president and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga – Raila’s father – was  his first vice-president. The two broke ranks in 1966 following the elder Odinga’s ouster from Kanu over ideological and personal differences.

Munene says neither of the two families seems to have a heir apparent and a loss for Uhuru/Raila in today’s polls could see the end of their dominance of the country’s politics.

For Ruto, victory would be a reward for his rebellion against his boss, who had earlier promised to back him but changed his mind over what he described as integrity issues.

To the allies of DP, who calls himself the “Hustler-in-Chief,” a reference to his humble beginnings as a chicken seller in Eldoret town, he is a heartbeat away from the most powerful office.

 Ruto has assembled a coalition of his own — Kenya Kwanza — which has attracted many leaders from Uhuru’s backyard and animated broad national appeal with an oft-repeated economic empowerment narrative.

Whichever way the election goes, it will be a destiny defining moment for the three protagonists who have turned Kenya into a political theatre of monumental proportion.