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The prices of some basic commodities are starting to tick down although overall inflation remains high, increasing for seven consecutive months since last march.

Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS)  data shows the overall rate of inflation in October stood at 9.6 per cent compared to 9.2 per cent in September. The last time the country witnessed this kind of inflation was in June 2017 when it hit 9.21 per cent.

The price decline currently being witnessed in the market comes on the back of harvesting season and easing of the global market which has led to availability of raw materials and other imports for Kenyan millers and manufacturers.

Leading brands of maize flour are now retailing at averagely Sh170 per kilogramme compared to August and September when the costs crossed Sh200 mark for a similar quantity.

A litre of cooking oil now goes for Sh352 while cooking gas cost stands at between Sh1050 and 1,200 per six-kilogramme cylinder by most independent dealers.

“Global markets have come down a little and therefore the local drop in prices. Though I don’t think there will be further drops at the moment. We will wait and see how things go,” Rajul Malde, CEO of Pwani Oil, manufacturer of Freshfri and Salit brands, told the Business Hub.

Shortage of grain and other raw materials in the local market saw the prices of consumer goods hit new records in the recent months, worsened by the Russia-Ukraine tension which hampered supply chains.

Global market

A biting drought and trade tiff between Kenya and its East African neighbours also brought stock out of maize grain. This has however changed as leading producers of raw material return to the global market after months of export freeze.

Late last month, Kenya received 51,400 tonnes wheat imports from Ukraine for the first time since Russia launched a military invasion against Ukraine in February 2022. Wheat is the second most-consumed cereal in Kenya after maize.

Trade cabinet secretary Moses Kuria yesterday called out some companies for deliberately increasing consumer prices. 

“The government will protect local industries. Some industries are taking advantage to raise prices for consumer products,” Kuria said during a meeting with the Kenya Association of Manufacturers.  He pointed out recycling and packaging as the biggest contributor of consumer prices currently especially among edible oil manufacturers.

The reduction in prices of some commodities is expected to persist for the remainder of this year, with the return of short rains coming as a boost to the agriculture sector. The price reprieve could, however, be offset by the high cost of electricity and fuel, meaning cost of living could still remain elevated. Inflation currently stands at 9.6 per cent as of end October.

Monthly indicator by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics shows that the new five-year high inflation on the cost of basic consumer prices has been caused by higher food, energy and transport costs during the month, which account for 57 percent of major household spending.

Diesel prices have for instance jumped up by about 47 per cent over the past 12 months at an average of Sh163.92 per litre this month. Petrol prices have increased by 37 per cent since October 2021 to hit Sh179 per litre.